A point \(P\) lies in an equilateral
triangle \(ABC\) of height 1. The perpendicular
distances from \(P\) to the sides \(AB\), \(BC\) and \(CA\) are
\(x_1\), \(x_2\) and \(x_3\), respectively. By considering the
areas of triangles with one vertex at \(P\), show
that \(x_1+x_2+x_3=1\).
Suppose now that \(P\) is placed at random in the equilateral triangle
(so that the probability of it lying in any given region of the triangle is
proportional to the area of that region). The perpendicular
distances from \(P\) to the sides \(AB\), \(BC\) and \(CA\) are
random variables \(X_1\), \(X_2\) and \(X_3\), respectively.
In the case \(X_1= \min(X_1,X_2,X_3)\), give a sketch showing
the region of the triangle in which \(P\) lies.
Let \(X= \min(X_1,X_2,X_3)\). Show that
the probability density function for \(X\) is
given by
\[
\f(x) =
\begin{cases}
6(1-3x) & 0 \le x \le \frac13\,, \\
0 & \text{otherwise}\,.
\end{cases}
\]
Find the expected value of \(X\).
A point is chosen at random in a regular tetrahedron of height 1.
Find the expected value of the distance from the point to the
closest face.
\newline
[The volume of a tetrahedron is
\(\frac13 \times \text{area of base}\times\text{height}\) and its centroid
is a distance \(\frac14\times \text{height}\) from the base.]
My favourite dartboard is a disc of unit radius and centre \(O\). I never miss the board, and the probability of my hitting any given area of the dartboard is proportional to the area. Each throw is independent of any other throw. I throw a dart \(n\) times (where \(n>1\)). Find the expected area of the smallest circle, with centre \(O\), that encloses all the \(n\) holes made by my dart.
Find also the expected area of the smallest circle, with centre \(O\), that encloses all the \((n-1)\) holes nearest to \(O\).
My other dartboard is a square of side 2 units, with centre \(Q\). I never miss the board, and the probability of my hitting any given area of the dartboard is proportional to the area. Each throw is independent of any other throw. I throw a dart \(n\) times (where \(n>1\)). Find the expected area of the
smallest square, with centre \(Q\), that encloses all the \(n\) holes made by my dart.
Determine, without detailed calculations, whether the expected area of the smallest circle, with centre \(Q\), on my square dartboard that encloses all
the \(n\) holes made by my darts is larger or smaller than that for my circular dartboard.
Firstly, we consider the probability that all darts lie within a distance \(s\) from the centre, ie
\begin{align*}
\mathbb{P}(\text{all darts within }s) &= \prod_{k=1}^s \mathbb{P}(\text{dart within }s) \\
&= \left ( \frac{\pi s^2}{\pi} \right)^n \\
&= s^{2n}
\end{align*}
Therefore the pdf is \(2ns^{2n-1}\), and the expected area is \(\int_{s=0}^1 \pi s^2 \cdot 2n s^{2n-1} \d s = 2n \pi \frac{1}{2n+2} = \frac{n}{n+1} \pi\).
\begin{align*}
\mathbb{P}(\text{n-1 within }s) &= \underbrace{s^{2n}}_{\text{all within }s} + \underbrace{ns^{2n-2}(1-s^2)}_{\text{all but 1 within }s}\\
&= ns^{2n-2}-(n-1)s^{2n}
\end{align*}
Therefore the pdf is \(n(2n-2)s^{2n-3} - 2n(n-1)s^{2n-1} = 2n(n-1)(s^{2n-3}-s^{2n-1})\) and the expected area is:
\begin{align*}
\int \pi s^2 \cdot2n(n-1)(s^{2n-3}-s^{2n-1})\d s &= 2n(n-1) \pi \left ( \frac{1}{2n} - \frac{1}{2n+2} \right) \\
&= n(n-1)\pi \frac{2}{n(n+1)} \\
&= \frac{n-1}{n+1} \pi
\end{align*}
Now consider a square of side-length \(s\), we must have \(\mathbb{P}(\text{all darts within square}) = \left ( \frac{s^2}{4} \right)^n\) and therefore the pdf is \(n \frac{s^{n-1}}{4^n}\). Therefore the expected area is \(\displaystyle \int_0^2 s^2 \cdot n \frac{s^{n-1}}{4^n} \d s = \frac{n}{n+1} \frac{2^{2n+1}}{2^{2n}} = \frac{4n}{n+1}\)
It is clearly larger as the square dartboard contains all of the circular dartboard, and there will be some probability that the darts land outside the circular dartboard, making the circle much larger.
Two points are chosen independently at random on the perimeter (including the diameter) of a semicircle of unit radius. The area of the triangle whose vertices are these two points and the midpoint of the diameter is denoted by the random variable \(A\).
Show that the expected value of \(A\) is \((2+\pi)^{-1}\).
There are \(3\) possible numbers of points on the curved part of the perimeter.
\(0\): The area is \(0\)
\(1\):
The area of the triangle is \(\frac12 |x| \sin \theta\)
Where \(X\) is the point along the diameter which is \(U[-1,1]\) and \(\theta \sim U(0, \pi)\)
Therefore
\begin{align*}
\mathbb{E}(A|\text{one on diameter}) &= \int_{0}^\pi \frac{1}{\pi} \int_{-1}^1\frac{1}{2}\frac12 |x| \sin \theta \d x \d \theta \\
&= \frac{1}{2\pi}\frac12 \int_{0}^\pi \sin \theta \d \theta \cdot 2\int_{0}^1 x\d x \\
&=\frac{1}{2\pi}\cdot 2 \cdot \frac12 = \frac{1}{2\pi}
\end{align*}
\(2\): If both are on the curved section
Then the area is \(\frac12 \sin \theta\) where \(\theta = |\theta_1 - \theta_2|\) and \(\theta_i \sim U[0, \pi]\)
Therefore the area is
\begin{align*}
\mathbb{E}(A|\text{none on diameter}) &= \int_{0}^\pi\frac{1}{\pi} \int_{0}^\pi\frac{1}{\pi} \frac12 \sin |\theta_1 - \theta_2| \d \theta_1 \d \theta_2 \\
&= \frac{1}{\pi^2}\frac12 \int_{0}^\pi \left (\int_{0}^{\theta_2} \sin (\theta_2 - \theta_1) \d \theta_1-\int_{\theta_2}^{\pi} \sin (\theta_2 - \theta_1) \d \theta_1 \right)\d \theta_2 \\
&= \frac{1}{\pi^2}\frac12 \int_{0}^\pi \left [2\cos(\theta_2 - \theta_2)-\cos(\theta_2 - 0)-\cos(\theta_2 - \pi) \right]\d \theta_2 \\
&= \frac{1}{\pi}
\end{align*}
Therefore the expected area is:
\begin{align*}
\mathbb{E}(A ) &= \mathbb{E}(A|\text{one on diameter})\cdot \mathbb{P}(\text{one on diameter}) + \mathbb{E}(A|\text{none on diameter})\cdot \mathbb{P}(\text{none on diameter}) \\
&= \frac{1}{2\pi}\mathbb{P}(\text{one on diameter}) + \frac{1}{\pi}\cdot \mathbb{P}(\text{none on diameter}) \\
&= \frac{1}{2\pi} \cdot 2 \cdot \frac{\pi}{\pi + 2} \cdot \frac{2}{\pi + 2} + \frac1{\pi} \cdot \frac{\pi}{\pi + 2} \cdot \frac{\pi}{\pi+2} \\
&= \frac{2 + \pi}{(\pi+2)^2} \\
&= \frac{1}{\pi+2}
\end{align*}
Harry the Calculating Horse will do any mathematical problem I set him, providing the answer is 1, 2, 3 or 4. When I set him a problem, he places a hoof on a large grid consisting of unit squares and his answer is the number of squares partly covered by his hoof. Harry has circular hoofs, of radius \(1/4\) unit.
After many years of collaboration, I suspect that Harry no longer bothers to do the calculations, instead merely placing his hoof on the grid completely at random. I often ask him to divide 4 by 4, but only about \(1/4\) of his answers are right; I often ask him to add 2 and 2, but disappointingly only about \(\pi/16\) of his answers are right. Is this consistent with my suspicions?
I decide to investigate further by setting Harry many problems, the answers to which are 1, 2, 3, or 4 with equal frequency. If Harry is placing his hoof at random, find the expected value of his answers. The average of Harry's answers turns out to be 2. Should I get a new horse?
Without loss of generality, let's assume that Harry is putting the center of his hoof within one square.
Based on the colour he places his foot in (red \(1\), green \(2\), blue \(3\) and orange \(4\)) we can see that the probability of him hitting \(1\) is \(\frac14\) and the probability of him getting \(4\) is \(\pi 0.25^2 = \frac{\pi}{16}\) just as you expected.
The expected value of randomly placinging his hoof is:
\begin{align*}
\E[A] &= \frac14 \cdot 1 + \frac{4}{8} \cdot 2 + \left ( \frac14 - \frac{\pi}{16}\right) \cdot 3 + \frac{\pi}{16} \cdot 4 \\
&= 2 + \frac{\pi}{16}
\end{align*}
The expected value we should get is \(2.5\). That he is worse than random means we should probably investigate further. There is probably some bias, which might be solvable (it's hard for the horse to answer \(3\) for example), but it may just be we need a new horse.
When I throw a dart at a target, the probability that it lands a
distance \(X\) from the centre is a random variable with density
function
\[
\mathrm{f}(x)=\begin{cases}
2x & \text{ if }0\leqslant x\leqslant1;\\
0 & \text{ otherwise.}
\end{cases}
\]
I score points according to the position of the dart as follows:
%
%
%
%\newline\hspace*{10mm}
if~\(0\le X< \frac14\), my score is 4;
%\newline\hspace*{10mm}
if~\(\frac14\le X< \frac12\), my score is 3;
%\newline\hspace*{10mm}
if \(\frac12\le X< \frac34\), my score is 2;
%\newline\hspace*{10mm}
if \(\frac34\le X\le 1\), my score is 1.
Show that my expected score from one dart is 15/8.
I play a game with the following rules.
I start off with a total score 0, and each time~I throw a dart
my score on that throw is added to my total. Then:
\newline
\hspace*{10mm}
if my new total is greater than 3, I have lost and the game ends;
\newline
\hspace*{10mm} if my new total is 3, I have won and the game ends;
\newline
\hspace*{10mm} if my new total is less than 3, I throw again.
Show that, if I
have won such a game, the probability that I threw the dart three
times is 343/2231.
The cakes in our canteen each contain
exactly four currants, each currant being randomly placed in the cake. I take a proportion \(X\) of a cake where \(X\) is a random variable with density function
\[{\mathrm f}(x)=Ax\]
for \(0\leqslant x\leqslant 1\) where \(A\) is a constant.
What is the expected number of currants in my portion?
If I find all four currants in my portion, what is the probability that I took more than half the cake?
To celebrate the opening of the financial year
the finance minister of Genland flings a Slihing, a circular
coin of radius \(a\) cm, where \(0 < a < 1\), onto a
large board divided
into squares by two sets
of parallel lines 2 cm apart. If the coin does not
cross any line, or if the coin covers an intersection,
the tax on yaks remains unchanged. Otherwise
the tax is doubled. Show that, in order to raise most tax,
the value of \(a\) should be
\[\left(1+{\displaystyle \frac{\pi}{4}}\right)^{-1}.\]
If, indeed, \(a=\left(1+{\displaystyle \frac{\pi}{4}}\right)^{-1}\)
and
the tax on yaks is 1 Slihing per yak this year, show that
its expected value after \(n\) years will have passed is
\[ \left(\frac{8+\pi}{4+\pi}\right)^{n}.\]
A needle of length two cm is dropped at random onto a large piece of paper ruled with parallel lines two cm apart.
By considering the angle which the needle makes with the lines, find the probability that the needle crosses the nearest line given that its centre is \(x\) cm from it, where \(0 < x < 1\).
Given that the centre of the needle is \(x\) cm from the nearest line and that the needle crosses that line, find the cumulative distribution function for the length of the shorter segment of the needle cut off by the line.
Find the probability that the needle misses all the lines.
Suppose the needle's center is \(x\) cm from the nearest line and makes an angle of \(\theta\). Then if \(\sin \theta > x\) it will cross the line, otherwise it will not.
Given that \(\theta \sim U(0, \frac{\pi}{2})\), we can see that
\begin{align*}
&& \mathbb{P}(\text{needle crosses}) &= \mathbb{P}(\sin \theta > x) \\
&&&= \mathbb{P}(\theta > \sin^{-1} x) \\
&&&= 1-\frac{2\sin^{-1} x}{\pi}
\end{align*}
The length of the short segment is \(L = 1 - \frac{x}{\sin \theta}\) and \(\theta \sim U(\sin^{-1} x, \frac{\pi}{2})\).
So \begin{align*}
&& F_L(l) &= \mathbb{P}(L < l) \\
&&&= \mathbb{P}\left (1 - \frac{x} {\sin \theta} < l\right) \\
&&&= \mathbb{P}\left ( \sin \theta < \frac{x}{1-l}\right) \\
&&&= \mathbb{P}\left (\theta < \sin^{-1} \frac{x}{1-l}\right) \\
&&&= \frac{ \sin^{-1} \frac{x}{1-l} - \sin^{-1} x }{\frac{\pi}{2} - \sin^{-1}x}
\end{align*}
The needle (with probability \(1\)) cannot hit \(2\) lines, so let's only consider the line it's nearest too. The distance to this line is uniform on \([0,1]\), and the so we want to calculate.
\begin{align*}
&& \mathbb{P}(\text{needle crosses}) &= \int_0^1 \left (1 - \frac{2\sin^{-1}x}{\pi} \right) \d x \\
&&&= 1 - \frac{2}{\pi} \int_0^1 \sin^{-1} x \d x\\
&&&= 1 - \frac{2}{\pi} \left ( \frac{\pi}{2} - 1 \right) \\
&&&= \frac{2}{\pi}
\end{align*}
Therefore the probability it misses is \(1 - \frac{\pi}{2}\)
When Septimus Moneybags throws darts at a dart board they are certain
to end on the board (a disc of radius \(a\)) but, it must be admitted,
otherwise are uniformly randomly distributed over the board.
Show that the distance \(R\) that his shot lands from the centre of
the board is a random variable with variance \(a^{2}/18.\)
At a charity fete he can buy \(m\) throws for \(\pounds(12+m)\), but
he must choose \(m\) before he starts to throw. If at least one of
his throws lands with \(a/\sqrt{10}\) of the centre he wins back \(\pounds 12\).
In order to show that a good sport he is, he is determined to play
but, being a careful man, he wishes to choose \(m\) so as to minimise
his expected loss. What values of \(m\) should he choose?
Let \(p = \mathbb{P}(R < \frac{a}{\sqrt{10}}) = \frac{a^2}{10a^2} = \frac{1}{10}\) be the probability of hitting the target on each throw.
His expected loss is \((12+m)p^m + m(1-p^m) = 12p^m + m\).
\begin{array}{c|c}
m & \text{expected loss} \\ \hline
0 & 12 \\
1 & \frac{12}{10} + 1 \approx 2.2 \\
2 & \frac{12}{100} + 2 \approx 2.12 \\
\end{array}
If he takes more than \(2\) throws it will definitely cost more than \(3\), therefore he should take exactly \(2\) throws.
Three points, \(P,Q\) and \(R\), are independently randomly chosen on the perimeter of a circle. Prove that the probability that at least one of the angles of the triangle \(PQR\) will exceed \(k\pi\) is \(3(1-k)^{2}\) if \(\frac{1}{2}\leqslant k\leqslant1.\) Find the probability if \(\frac{1}{3}\leqslant k\leqslant\frac{1}{2}.\)
By making the substitution \(y=\cos^{-1}t,\) or otherwise, show that
\[
\int_{0}^{1}\cos^{-1}t\,\mathrm{d}t=1.
\]
A pin of length \(2a\) is thrown onto a floor ruled with parallel lines equally spaced at a distance \(2b\) apart. The distance \(X\) of its centre from the nearest line is a uniformly distributed random variable taking values between \(0\) and \(b\) and the acute angle \(Y\) the pin makes with a direction perpendicular to the line is a uniformly distributed random variable taking values between \(0\) and \(\pi/2\). \(X\) and \(Y\) are independent. If \(X=x\) what is the probability that the pin crosses the line?
If \(a < b\) show that the probability that the pin crosses a line for a general throw is \(\dfrac{2a}{\pi b}.\)
\begin{align*}
&& I &= \int_0^1 \cos^{-1} t \d t \\
\cos y = t: -\sin y \d y = \d t: &&&= \int_{\frac{\pi}{2}}^0 -y \sin y \d y \\
&&&= \int_0^{\pi/2} y \sin y \d y \\
&&&= \left [-y \cos y \right]_0^{\pi/2} + \int_0^{\pi/2} \cos y \d y \\
&&&= \left [ \sin y \right]_0^{\pi/2} = 1
\end{align*}
If \(X = x\) then the rod will cross the line if \(\frac{x}{\sin \theta} < a\) or \(\frac{2b-x}{\sin \theta} < a\), ie \(a\sin \theta > \max (x, 2b-x)\).
Therefore the probability is \(\frac{2\sin^{-1} \left (\max(\frac{x}{a}, \frac{2b-x}{a}) \right)}{\pi}\).
Therefore the probability the pin crosses a line is:
\begin{align*}
\mathbb{P} &= \frac{1}{2b}\int_{x=0}^{x=2b} \frac{2\sin^{-1} \left (\max(\frac{x}{a}, \frac{2b-x}{a}) \right)}{\pi} \d x \\
&= \frac{2a}{b\pi}
\end{align*}
Two points are chosen independently at random on the perimeter (including the diameter) of a semicircle of unit radius. What is the probability that exactly one of them lies on the diameter?
Let the area of the triangle formed by the two points and the midpoint of the diameter be denoted by the random variable \(A\).
Given that exactly one point lies on the diameter, show that the expected value of \(A\) is \(\left(2\pi\right)^{-1}\).
Given that neither point lies on the diameter, show that the expected value of \(A\) is \(\pi^{-1}\). [You may assume that if two points are chosen at random on a line of length \(\pi\) units, the probability
density function for the distance \(X\) between the two points is \(2\left(\pi-x\right)/\pi^{2}\)
for \(0\leqslant x\leqslant\pi.\)]
Using these results, or otherwise, show that the expected value of \(A\) is \(\left(2+\pi\right)^{-1}\).
Show Solution
\begin{align*}
\mathbb{E}(A \mid \text{exactly one point on diameter}) &= \int_{-1}^1\int_0^\pi \frac12 (x-0)\cdot 1 \cdot \sin(\pi - \theta) \frac{1}{\pi} \d \theta \frac{1}{2} \d x \\
&= \int_{-1}^1\frac1{2\pi} x \d x \cdot \left [ -\cos \theta \right]_0^\pi \\
&= \frac{1}{2\pi}
\end{align*}
\begin{align*}
\mathbb{E}(A \mid \text{no point on diameter}) &= \int_0^{\pi} \frac12 \cdot 1 \cdot 1 \cdot \sin x \cdot 2(\pi - x)/\pi^2 \d x \\
&= \frac1{\pi^2} \int_0^\pi \sin x (\pi - x) \d x \\
&= \frac1{\pi^2} \int_0^\pi x\sin x \d x \\
&= \frac1{\pi^2} \left [ \sin x - x \cos x \right]_0^{\pi} \\
&= \frac{1}{\pi}
\end{align*}
If both points lie on the diameter the area of the triangle is \(0\).
Therefore:
\begin{align*}
\mathbb{E}(A) &= \frac{1}{2\pi} \mathbb{P}(\text{exactly one point on diameter}) + \frac{1}{\pi}\mathbb{P}(\text{no points on diameter}) \\
&= \frac1{2\pi} \cdot \left (2 \cdot \frac{2}{2+\pi} \cdot \frac{\pi}{2+\pi} \right) + \frac{1}{\pi} \cdot \left ( \frac{\pi}{2+\pi} \cdot \frac{\pi}{2+\pi}\right) \\
&= \frac{1}{\pi} \frac{2\pi + \pi^2}{(2+\pi)^2} \\
&= \frac{1}{2+\pi}
\end{align*}
A point \(P\) is chosen at random (with uniform distribution) on the circle \(x^{2}+y^{2}=1\). The random variable \(X\) denotes the distance of \(P\) from \((1,0)\). Find the mean and variance of \(X\).
Find also the probability that \(X\) is greater than its mean.
Where the line makes a length longer than \(\frac{4}{\pi}\) it will make an angle at the origin of \(2\sin^{-1} \frac{2}{\pi}\). Therefore the probability of being larger than this is \(\frac{2\pi - 2 \times 2\sin^{-1} \frac{2}{\pi}}{2 \pi} = 1 - \frac{2}{\pi} \sin^{-1} \frac{2}{\pi} \approx 0.560\)
A train of length \(l_{1}\) and a lorry of length \(l_{2}\) are heading
for a level crossing at speeds \(u_{1}\) and \(u_{2}\) respectively.
Initially the front of the train and the front of the lorry are at
distances \(d_{1}\) and \(d_{2}\) from the crossing. Find conditions
on \(u_{1}\) and \(u_{2}\) under which a collision will occur. On a
diagram with \(u_{1}\) and \(u_{2}\) measured along the \(x\) and \(y\)
axes respectively, shade in the region which represents collision.
Hence show that if \(u_{1}\) and \(u_{2}\) are two independent random
variables, both uniformly distributed on \((0,V)\), then the probability
of a collision in the case when initially the back of the train is
nearer to the crossing than the front of the lorry is
\[
\frac{l_{1}l_{2}+l_{2}d_{1}+l_{1}d_{2}}{2d_{2}\left(l_{2}+d_{2}\right)}.
\]
Find the probability of a collision in each of the other two possible
cases.