1987 Paper 1 Q15

Year: 1987
Paper: 1
Question Number: 15

Course: LFM Stats And Pure
Section: Geometric Probability

Difficulty: 1500.0 Banger: 1516.7

Problem

A point \(P\) is chosen at random (with uniform distribution) on the circle \(x^{2}+y^{2}=1\). The random variable \(X\) denotes the distance of \(P\) from \((1,0)\). Find the mean and variance of \(X\). Find also the probability that \(X\) is greater than its mean.

Solution

Consider the angle from the origin, then \(P = (\cos \theta, \sin \theta)\) where \(\theta \sim U(0, 2\pi)\), and \(X = \sqrt{(\cos \theta - 1)^2 + \sin^2 \theta}\) \begin{align*} \mathbb{E}[X] &= \int_0^{2\pi} \sqrt{(\cos \theta - 1)^2 + \sin^2 \theta} \frac1{2\pi} \d \theta \\ &= \frac1{2\pi}\int_0^{2\pi} \sqrt{2 - 2\cos \theta} \d \theta \\ &= \frac{1}{2\pi}\int_0^{2\pi} \sqrt{4\sin^2 \frac{\theta}{2}} \d \theta \\ &= \frac{1}{\pi}\int_0^{2\pi} \left |\sin \frac{\theta}{2} \right| \d \theta \\ &= \frac{1}{\pi} \left [ -2\cos \frac{\theta}{2} \right]_0^{2\pi} \\ &= \frac1{\pi} \l 2 + 2\r \\ &= \frac{4}{\pi} \end{align*} \begin{align*} \mathbb{E}(X^2) &= \frac1{2\pi}\int_0^{2\pi} (\cos \theta - 1)^2 + \sin^2 \theta \d \theta \\ &= \frac1{2\pi}\int_0^{2\pi} 2 - 2 \cos \theta \d \theta \\ &= \frac{4\pi}{2\pi} \\ &= 2 \\ \end{align*} \(\Rightarrow\) \(\mathrm{Var}(X) = \mathbb{E}(X^2) - \mathbb{E}(X)^2 = 2 - \frac{16}{\pi^2} = \frac{2\pi^2 - 16}{\pi^2}\).
TikZ diagram
Where the line makes a length longer than \(\frac{4}{\pi}\) it will make an angle at the origin of \(2\sin^{-1} \frac{2}{\pi}\). Therefore the probability of being larger than this is \(\frac{2\pi - 2 \times 2\sin^{-1} \frac{2}{\pi}}{2 \pi} = 1 - \frac{2}{\pi} \sin^{-1} \frac{2}{\pi} \approx 0.560\)
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Difficulty Rating: 1500.0

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Banger Rating: 1516.7

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Problem source
A point $P$ is chosen at random (with uniform distribution) on the circle $x^{2}+y^{2}=1$. The random variable $X$ denotes the distance of $P$ from $(1,0)$. Find the mean and variance of $X$. 
Find also the probability that $X$ is greater than its mean. 
Solution source
Consider the angle from the origin, then $P = (\cos \theta, \sin \theta)$ where $\theta \sim U(0, 2\pi)$, and $X = \sqrt{(\cos \theta - 1)^2 + \sin^2 \theta}$

\begin{align*}
\mathbb{E}[X] &= \int_0^{2\pi} \sqrt{(\cos \theta - 1)^2 + \sin^2 \theta} \frac1{2\pi} \d \theta \\
&=  \frac1{2\pi}\int_0^{2\pi} \sqrt{2 - 2\cos \theta} \d \theta \\
&= \frac{1}{2\pi}\int_0^{2\pi} \sqrt{4\sin^2 \frac{\theta}{2}} \d \theta \\
&= \frac{1}{\pi}\int_0^{2\pi} \left |\sin \frac{\theta}{2} \right| \d \theta \\
&= \frac{1}{\pi} \left [ -2\cos \frac{\theta}{2} \right]_0^{2\pi} \\
&= \frac1{\pi} \l 2 + 2\r \\
&= \frac{4}{\pi}
\end{align*}
\begin{align*}
\mathbb{E}(X^2) &= \frac1{2\pi}\int_0^{2\pi} (\cos \theta - 1)^2 + \sin^2 \theta \d \theta \\
&= \frac1{2\pi}\int_0^{2\pi} 2 - 2 \cos \theta \d \theta \\
&= \frac{4\pi}{2\pi} \\
&= 2 \\
\end{align*}

$\Rightarrow$ $\mathrm{Var}(X) = \mathbb{E}(X^2) - \mathbb{E}(X)^2 = 2 - \frac{16}{\pi^2} = \frac{2\pi^2 - 16}{\pi^2}$.


\begin{center}
\begin{tikzpicture}[scale=2]

    \coordinate (O) at (0,0);
    \coordinate (P) at ({cos(2*asin(2/3.14159))},{sin(2*asin(2/3.14159))});
    \coordinate (X) at (1,0);
    \coordinate (PP) at ($(X)!0.5!(P)$);

    \draw (O) circle (1);

    \draw (-1.1, 0) -- (1.1,0);
    \draw (0,-1.1) -- (0,1.1);

    \draw (X) -- (P) -- (O);
    \draw[dashed] (O) -- (PP);

    \pic [draw, angle radius=0.8cm, "$\theta$"] {angle = X--O--P};

    \node at (PP) [right, above] {$\frac{4}{\pi}$};

\end{tikzpicture}
\end{center}

Where the line makes a length longer than $\frac{4}{\pi}$ it will make an angle at the origin of $2\sin^{-1} \frac{2}{\pi}$. Therefore the probability of being larger than this is $\frac{2\pi - 2 \times 2\sin^{-1} \frac{2}{\pi}}{2 \pi} = 1 - \frac{2}{\pi} \sin^{-1} \frac{2}{\pi} \approx 0.560$