2009 Paper 2 Q13

Year: 2009
Paper: 2
Question Number: 13

Course: LFM Stats And Pure
Section: Tree Diagrams

Difficulty: 1600.0 Banger: 1500.0

Problem

Satellites are launched using two different types of rocket: the Andover and the Basingstoke. The Andover has four engines and the Basingstoke has six. Each engine has a probability~\(p\) of failing during any given launch. After the launch, the rockets are retrieved and repaired by replacing some or all of the engines. The cost of replacing each engine is \(K\). For the Andover, if more than one engine fails, all four engines are replaced. Otherwise, only the failed engine (if there is one) is replaced. Show that the expected repair cost for a single launch using the Andover is \[ 4Kp(1+q+q^2-2q^3) \ \ \ \ \ \ \ \ \ \ \ \ \ (q=1-p) \tag{*} \] For the Basingstoke, if more than two engines fail, all six engines are replaced. Otherwise only the failed engines (if there are any) are replaced. Find, in a form similar to \((*)\), the expected repair cost for a single launch using the Basingstoke. Find the values of \(p\) for which the expected repair cost for the Andover is \(\frac23\) of the expected repair cost for the Basingstoke.

No solution available for this problem.

Examiner's report
— 2009 STEP 2, Question 13
Mean: 11 / 20 ~14% attempted (inferred) Inferred ~14%: 'only marginally more popular than Q11' (~12%), so Q13 ≈ 12+2 = 14%. 'Almost 11' treated as 11.

This question was only marginally more popular than Q11, but those who did attempt it were usually well rewarded with marks; candidates averaging almost 11 on it. The careful use of binomial expansions, and remembering to use the result q = 1 – p throughout, made this an eminently approachable question in principle. Those who stumbled did so over little arithmetical slips, such as with the careless handling of minus signs. Once an error has been introduced, although method marks are there to be had, the final satisfaction of getting to the answer is never to be experienced without going back to correct it.

Of the 1000+ entries for this paper, around 920 scripts actually arrived for marking, giving another slight increase in the take-up for this paper. Of this number, five candidates scored a maximum and seventy-five achieved a scoring total of 100 or more. At the other end of the scale, almost two hundred candidates failed to reach the 40-mark mark. Otherwise, marks were spread reasonably normally across the mark range, though there were two peaks at about 45 and 65 in the distribution. It is comforting to find that the 'post-match analysis' bears out the view that I gained, quite firmly, during the marking process that there were several quantum states of mark-scoring ability amongst the candidature. Many (about one-fifth of the entry) struggled to find anything very much with which they were comfortable, and marks for these candidates were scored in 3s and 4s, with such folk often making eight or nine poor efforts at different questions without ever getting to grips with the content of any one of them. The next "ability band" saw those who either scored moderately well on a handful of questions or managed one really successful question plus a few bits-'n'-pieces in order to get up to a total in the mid-forties. To go much beyond that score required a little bit of extra talent that could lead them towards the next mark-hurdle in the mid-sixties. Thereafter, totals seemed to decline almost linearly on the distribution. Once again, it is clear that candidates need to give the questions at least a couple of minutes' worth of thought before commencing answering. Making attempts at more than the six scoring efforts permitted is a waste of valuable time, and the majority of those who do so are almost invariably the weaker brethren in the game. Many such candidates begin their efforts to individual questions promisingly, but get no more than half-a-dozen marks in before abandoning that question in favour of another – often with the replacement faring no better than its predecessor. In many such cases, the candidate's best-scoring question mark would come from their fifth, or sixth, or seventh, or …?, question attempted, and this suggests either that they do not know where their strengths lie, or that they are just not going to be of the view that they are not going to be challenged to think. And, to be fair to the setting panel, we did put some fairly obvious signposts up for those who might take the trouble to look for such things. With the pleasing number of very high totals to be found, it is clear that there are many places in which good marks were available to those with the ability to first identify them and then to persevere long enough to be able to determine what was really going on therein. It is extremely difficult to set papers in which each question is pitched at an equivalent level of difficulty. Apart from any other factors, candidates have widely differing strengths and weaknesses; one student's algebraic nuance can be the final nail in the coffin of many others, for instance. Moreover, it has seemed enormously clear to me – more particularly so since the arrival of modular A-levels – that there is absolutely no substitute for prolonged and determined practice at questions of substance. One moment's recognition of a technique at work can turn several hours of struggle into just a few seconds of polishing off, and a lack of experience is always painfully clear when marking work from candidates who are under-practised at either the art of prolonged mathematics or the science of creative problem-solving. At the other, more successful, end of the scale there were many candidates who managed to produce extraordinary amounts of outstanding work, racking up full-, or nearly full-, marks on question after question. With the marks distributed as they were, it seems that the paper was pitched appropriately at the intended level, and that it successfully managed to distinguish between the different ability-levels to be found among the candidates. As in previous years, the pure maths questions provided the bulk of candidates' work, with relatively few efforts to be found at the applied ones. Moreover, many of these were clearly acts of desperation.

Source: Cambridge STEP 2009 Examiner's Report · 2009-full.pdf
Rating Information

Difficulty Rating: 1600.0

Difficulty Comparisons: 0

Banger Rating: 1500.0

Banger Comparisons: 0

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Problem source
Satellites are launched using two different types of rocket: the
Andover and the Basingstoke. The Andover has four engines and the 
Basingstoke has six. Each engine has a probability~$p$ of
failing during any given launch. 
After the launch, the rockets are retrieved
and repaired by replacing some or all of the engines. The cost
of replacing each engine is $K$.
For the Andover, 
if  more than one engine fails, all four engines are replaced.
Otherwise, only the  failed engine (if there is one) is replaced.
Show that the expected repair cost for a single launch
using the Andover is 
\[
4Kp(1+q+q^2-2q^3) \ \ \ \ \ \ \ \ \ \ \ \ \ (q=1-p)
\tag{*}
\]
For the Basingstoke, if more than two engines fail, all six engines
are replaced. Otherwise only the failed engines (if there are any)
are replaced.
Find, in a form similar to $(*)$, the expected repair cost for 
a single launch using the  Basingstoke.
Find the values of $p$ for which the expected repair cost for the Andover
is  $\frac23$  of the expected repair cost for the Basingstoke.