2007 Paper 3 Q13

Year: 2007
Paper: 3
Question Number: 13

Course: LFM Stats And Pure
Section: Discrete Probability Distributions

Difficulty: 1700.0 Banger: 1500.0

Problem

A frog jumps towards a large pond. Each jump takes the frog either \(1\,\)m or \(2\,\)m nearer to the pond. The probability of a \(1\,\)m jump is \(p\) and the probability of a \(2\,\)m jump is \(q\), where \(p+q=1\), the occurence of long and short jumps being independent.
  1. Let \(p_n(j)\) be the probability that the frog, starting at a point \((n-\frac12)\,\)m away from the edge of the pond, lands in the pond for the first time on its \(j\)th jump. Show that \(p_2(2)=p\).
  2. Let \(u_n\) be the expected number of jumps, starting at a point \((n-\frac12)\,\)m away from the edge of the pond, required to land in the pond for the first time. Write down the value of \(u_1\). By finding first the relevant values of \(p_n(m)\), calculate \(u_2\) and show that $u_3= 3-2q+q^2\(.
  3. Given that \)u_n\( can be expressed in the form \)u_n= A(-q)^{n-1} +B +Cn$, where \(A\), \(B\) and \(C\) are constants (independent of \(n\)), show that \(C= (1+q)^{-1}\) and find \(A\) and \(B\) in terms of \(q\). Hence show that, for large \(n\), \(u_n \approx \dfrac n{p+2q}\) and explain carefully why this result is to be expected.

No solution available for this problem.

Examiner's report
— 2007 STEP 3, Question 13
Above Average Most popular Probability and Statistics question; ranking alongside Q5 and Q8

This was the most popular of the Probability and Statistics questions, ranking alongside questions 5 and 8. The first two parts were competently handled, but most got bogged down in the algebra of part (iii) through not having a clear strategy to solve the equations.

Source: Cambridge STEP 2007 Examiner's Report · 2007-full.pdf
Rating Information

Difficulty Rating: 1700.0

Difficulty Comparisons: 0

Banger Rating: 1500.0

Banger Comparisons: 0

Show LaTeX source
Problem source
A frog  jumps towards a large pond.
  Each jump takes the frog either $1\,$m or $2\,$m nearer to the pond.
The probability of a $1\,$m jump is $p$ and the probability of a
$2\,$m jump is
$q$, where $p+q=1$, the occurence of long and short jumps being 
independent.
\begin{questionparts}
\item
Let $p_n(j)$ be the probability that the frog,
 starting at a point
$(n-\frac12)\,$m away from 
the edge of the pond,
 lands in the pond
for the first time on its $j$th jump.
Show that $p_2(2)=p$.
\item Let $u_n$ be the expected number of jumps,
 starting at a point
$(n-\frac12)\,$m away from 
the edge of the pond,
 required to land in the pond
for the first time. Write down the value of $u_1$.
 By finding first
the relevant values of $p_n(m)$, calculate $u_2$ and show that $u_3=
3-2q+q^2$.
\item
Given that $u_n$ can be expressed in the form $u_n= A(-q)^{n-1} +B +Cn$,
where $A$, $B$ and $C$ are constants
(independent of $n$), show that
 $C= (1+q)^{-1}$ and find $A$ and $B$ in terms of  $q$.
Hence show that, for large $n$, $u_n \approx \dfrac n{p+2q}$ and 
explain carefully why this result is to be expected.
 \end{questionparts}