Year: 2013
Paper: 2
Question Number: 13
Course: LFM Stats And Pure
Section: Geometric Distribution
All questions were attempted by a significant number of candidates, with questions 1 to 3 and 7 the most popular. The Pure questions were more popular than both the Mechanics and the Probability and Statistics questions, with only question 8 receiving a particularly low number of attempts within the Pure questions and only question 11 receiving a particularly high number of attempts.
Difficulty Rating: 1600.0
Difficulty Comparisons: 0
Banger Rating: 1516.0
Banger Comparisons: 1
A biased coin has probability $p$ of showing a head
and probability $q$ of showing a tail, where $p\ne0$, $q\ne0$
and $p\ne q$. When the coin is tossed repeatedly, runs occur.
A \textit{straight run} of length $n$ is a sequence of $n$ consecutive
heads or $n$ consecutive tails. An \textit{alternating run} of length
$n$ is a sequence of length $n$ alternating between heads and tails. An
alternating run can start with either a head or a tail.
Let $S$ be the length of the longest straight run beginning with the
first toss and let $A$ be the length of the longest
alternating run beginning with the
first toss.
\begin{questionparts}
\item Explain why $\P(A=1)=p^2+q^2$ and find $\P(S=1)$. Show that
$\P(S=1)<\P(A=1)$.
\item Show that
$\P(S=2)= \P(A=2)$
and determine the relationship between
$\P(S=3)$ and $ \P(A=3)$.
\item Show that, for $n>1$, $\P(S=2n)>\P(A=2n)$ and determine
the corresponding relationship between $\P(S=2n+1)$ and $\P(A=2n+1)$.
[You are advised \textit{not} to use $p+q=1$ in this part.]
\end{questionparts}
\begin{questionparts}
\item The only way $A = 1$ is if we get $HH$ or $TT$ which has probability $p^2+q^2$. The only way we get $S=1$ is if we have $HT$ to $TH$, ie $2pq$.
Since $(p-q)^2 = p^2 + q^2 - 2pq >0$ we must have $\mathbb{P}(A=1) > \mathbb{P}(S=1)$.
\item $\,$ \begin{align*}
\mathbb{P}(S=2) &= p^2q + q^2p \\
\mathbb{P}(A=2) &= pq^2 + qp^2 = \mathbb{P}(S=2) \\
\\
\mathbb{P}(S=3) &= p^3q + q^3p = pq(p^2+q^2) \\
\mathbb{P}(A=3) &= pqp^2 + qpq^2 = pq(p^2+q^2) = \mathbb{P}(S=3)
\end{align*}
\item For $n > 1$ we must have
\begin{align*}
&& \mathbb{P}(S = 2n) &= p^{2n}q + q^{2n}p \\
&& \mathbb{P}(A=2n) &= (pq)^{n}q + (qp)^{n}p \\
&&&= p^nq^{n+1} + q^np^{n+1} \\
&& \mathbb{P}(S = 2n) &> \mathbb{P}(A = 2n) \\
\Leftrightarrow && p^{2n}q + q^{2n}p & > p^nq^{n+1} + q^np^{n+1}\\
\Leftrightarrow && 0 & < p^{2n}q+q^{2n}p - p^nq^{n+1} -q^np^{n+1}\\
&&&= (p^n-q^n)(qp^n - pq^n)
\end{align*}
which is clearly true.
\begin{align*}
&& \mathbb{P}(S=2n+1) &= p^{2n+1}q + q^{2n+1}p \\
&& \mathbb{P}(A=2n+1) &= (pq)^{n}p^2 + (qp)^{n}q^2 \\
&&&= p^{n+2}q^n + q^{n+2}p^n
\end{align*}
The same factoring logic shows that $\mathbb{P}(S = 2n+1) > \mathbb{P}(A=2n+1)$
\end{questionparts}
Many candidates were able to complete the parts of the question that related to the early cases, but some struggled to generalise the expressions for the probabilities in the cases required in part (iii) of the question. Of those that reached the correct expressions many struggled to establish the required relationships between them.