2013 Paper 2 Q13

Year: 2013
Paper: 2
Question Number: 13

Course: LFM Stats And Pure
Section: Geometric Distribution

Difficulty: 1600.0 Banger: 1516.0

Problem

A biased coin has probability \(p\) of showing a head and probability \(q\) of showing a tail, where \(p\ne0\), \(q\ne0\) and \(p\ne q\). When the coin is tossed repeatedly, runs occur. A straight run of length \(n\) is a sequence of \(n\) consecutive heads or \(n\) consecutive tails. An alternating run of length \(n\) is a sequence of length \(n\) alternating between heads and tails. An alternating run can start with either a head or a tail. Let \(S\) be the length of the longest straight run beginning with the first toss and let \(A\) be the length of the longest alternating run beginning with the first toss.
  1. Explain why \(\P(A=1)=p^2+q^2\) and find \(\P(S=1)\). Show that \(\P(S=1)<\P(A=1)\).
  2. Show that \(\P(S=2)= \P(A=2)\) and determine the relationship between \(\P(S=3)\) and \( \P(A=3)\).
  3. Show that, for \(n>1\), \(\P(S=2n)>\P(A=2n)\) and determine the corresponding relationship between \(\P(S=2n+1)\) and \(\P(A=2n+1)\). [You are advised not to use \(p+q=1\) in this part.]

Solution

  1. The only way \(A = 1\) is if we get \(HH\) or \(TT\) which has probability \(p^2+q^2\). The only way we get \(S=1\) is if we have \(HT\) to \(TH\), ie \(2pq\). Since \((p-q)^2 = p^2 + q^2 - 2pq >0\) we must have \(\mathbb{P}(A=1) > \mathbb{P}(S=1)\).
  2. \(\,\) \begin{align*} \mathbb{P}(S=2) &= p^2q + q^2p \\ \mathbb{P}(A=2) &= pq^2 + qp^2 = \mathbb{P}(S=2) \\ \\ \mathbb{P}(S=3) &= p^3q + q^3p = pq(p^2+q^2) \\ \mathbb{P}(A=3) &= pqp^2 + qpq^2 = pq(p^2+q^2) = \mathbb{P}(S=3) \end{align*}
  3. For \(n > 1\) we must have \begin{align*} && \mathbb{P}(S = 2n) &= p^{2n}q + q^{2n}p \\ && \mathbb{P}(A=2n) &= (pq)^{n}q + (qp)^{n}p \\ &&&= p^nq^{n+1} + q^np^{n+1} \\ && \mathbb{P}(S = 2n) &> \mathbb{P}(A = 2n) \\ \Leftrightarrow && p^{2n}q + q^{2n}p & > p^nq^{n+1} + q^np^{n+1}\\ \Leftrightarrow && 0 & < p^{2n}q+q^{2n}p - p^nq^{n+1} -q^np^{n+1}\\ &&&= (p^n-q^n)(qp^n - pq^n) \end{align*} which is clearly true. \begin{align*} && \mathbb{P}(S=2n+1) &= p^{2n+1}q + q^{2n+1}p \\ && \mathbb{P}(A=2n+1) &= (pq)^{n}p^2 + (qp)^{n}q^2 \\ &&&= p^{n+2}q^n + q^{n+2}p^n \end{align*} The same factoring logic shows that \(\mathbb{P}(S = 2n+1) > \mathbb{P}(A=2n+1)\)
Examiner's report
— 2013 STEP 2, Question 13

Many candidates were able to complete the parts of the question that related to the early cases, but some struggled to generalise the expressions for the probabilities in the cases required in part (iii) of the question. Of those that reached the correct expressions many struggled to establish the required relationships between them.

All questions were attempted by a significant number of candidates, with questions 1 to 3 and 7 the most popular. The Pure questions were more popular than both the Mechanics and the Probability and Statistics questions, with only question 8 receiving a particularly low number of attempts within the Pure questions and only question 11 receiving a particularly high number of attempts.

Source: Cambridge STEP 2013 Examiner's Report · 2013-full.pdf
Rating Information

Difficulty Rating: 1600.0

Difficulty Comparisons: 0

Banger Rating: 1516.0

Banger Comparisons: 1

Show LaTeX source
Problem source
A biased coin has probability $p$ of showing a head
and probability $q$ of showing a tail, where $p\ne0$, $q\ne0$
and $p\ne q$. When the coin is tossed repeatedly, runs occur. 
A \textit{straight run} of length $n$ is a sequence of $n$ consecutive
heads or $n$ consecutive tails. An \textit{alternating run} of length 
$n$ is a sequence of length $n$ alternating between heads and tails. An 
alternating run can start with either a head or a tail.
Let $S$ be the length of the longest straight run beginning with the
first toss and let $A$ be the  length of the longest 
alternating  run beginning with the
first toss.
\begin{questionparts}
\item Explain why  $\P(A=1)=p^2+q^2$ and find $\P(S=1)$. Show that
 $\P(S=1)<\P(A=1)$.
\item Show that
$\P(S=2)= \P(A=2)$
and determine the relationship between
$\P(S=3)$ and $ \P(A=3)$.
 \item Show that, for $n>1$, $\P(S=2n)>\P(A=2n)$ and determine
the corresponding relationship between $\P(S=2n+1)$ and $\P(A=2n+1)$.
[You are advised \textit{not} to  use $p+q=1$ in this part.] 
\end{questionparts}
Solution source
\begin{questionparts}
\item The only way $A = 1$ is if we get $HH$ or $TT$ which has probability $p^2+q^2$. The only way we get $S=1$ is if we have $HT$ to $TH$, ie $2pq$.

Since $(p-q)^2 = p^2 + q^2 - 2pq >0$ we must have $\mathbb{P}(A=1) > \mathbb{P}(S=1)$.

\item $\,$ \begin{align*}
\mathbb{P}(S=2) &= p^2q + q^2p \\
\mathbb{P}(A=2) &= pq^2 + qp^2 = \mathbb{P}(S=2) \\
\\
\mathbb{P}(S=3) &= p^3q + q^3p = pq(p^2+q^2) \\
\mathbb{P}(A=3) &= pqp^2 + qpq^2 = pq(p^2+q^2) = \mathbb{P}(S=3)
\end{align*}
\item For $n > 1$ we must have 
\begin{align*}
&& \mathbb{P}(S = 2n) &= p^{2n}q + q^{2n}p \\
&& \mathbb{P}(A=2n) &= (pq)^{n}q + (qp)^{n}p \\
&&&= p^nq^{n+1} + q^np^{n+1} \\
&& \mathbb{P}(S = 2n)  &> \mathbb{P}(A = 2n) \\
\Leftrightarrow &&  p^{2n}q + q^{2n}p & > p^nq^{n+1} + q^np^{n+1}\\
\Leftrightarrow &&  0 & < p^{2n}q+q^{2n}p - p^nq^{n+1} -q^np^{n+1}\\
&&&= (p^n-q^n)(qp^n - pq^n)
\end{align*}
which is clearly true.

\begin{align*}
&& \mathbb{P}(S=2n+1) &= p^{2n+1}q + q^{2n+1}p \\
&& \mathbb{P}(A=2n+1) &= (pq)^{n}p^2 + (qp)^{n}q^2 \\
&&&= p^{n+2}q^n + q^{n+2}p^n
\end{align*}

The same factoring logic shows that $\mathbb{P}(S = 2n+1) > \mathbb{P}(A=2n+1)$
\end{questionparts}