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1988 Paper 2 Q16
D: 1600.0 B: 1570.7

Find the probability that the quadratic equation \[ X^{2}+2BX+1=0 \] has real roots when \(B\) is normally distributed with zero mean and unit variance. Given that the two roots \(X_{1}\) and \(X_{2}\) are real, find:

  1. the probability that both \(X_{1}\) and \(X_{2}\) are greater than \(\frac{1}{5}\);
  2. the expected value of \(\left|X_{1}+X_{2}\right|\);
giving your answers to three significant figures.


Solution: The roots are \(X_1, X_2 = -B \pm \sqrt{B^2-1}\)

  1. The smallest root will be \(-B - \sqrt{B^2-1}\). For this to be larger than \(\frac15\) we must have, \begin{align*} && -B -\sqrt{B^2-1} &\geq \frac15 \\ \Rightarrow && -B - \frac15 &\geq \sqrt{B^2 - 1} \\ \Rightarrow && B^2 + \frac25 B + \frac1{25} &\geq B^2 - 1 \\ \Rightarrow && \frac25 B \geq -\frac{26}{25} \\ \Rightarrow && B \geq -\frac{13}{5} \end{align*} Therefore \(-\frac{13}5 \leq B \leq -1\). Therefore we want: \begin{align*} \frac{\P(-\frac{13}5 \leq B \leq -1)}{\P(B < -1) + \P(B > 1)} &= \frac{\Phi(-1) - \Phi(-\frac{13}{5})}{\Phi(-1)+1-\Phi(1)} \\ &= \frac{0.1586\ldots - 0.0046\ldots}{0.1586\ldots + 1- 0.8413\ldots} \\ &= 0.4853\ldots \\ &= 0.485 \,\,(3 \text{ s.f.}) \end{align*}
  2. \(X_1 + X_2 = -2B\). Therefore we want: \begin{align*} \mathbb{E}(|X_1 + X_2| &= \mathbb{E}(|2B|) \\ &= 2 \l\frac{1}{2\Phi(-1)} \int_1^{\infty} B \frac{1}{\sqrt{2 \pi}} e^{-\frac12 B^2} \, \d B+\frac{1}{2\Phi(-1)} \int_{-\infty}^{-1} B \frac{1}{\sqrt{2 \pi}} e^{-\frac12 B^2} \, \d B \r \\ &= \frac{4}{2\Phi(-1)} \int_1^{\infty} B \frac{1}{\sqrt{2 \pi}} e^{-\frac12 B^2} \, \d B \\ &=\frac{4}{2\sqrt{2 \pi} \Phi(-1)} \left [ -e^{-\frac12 B^2}\right]_1^{\infty} \\ &= \frac{4}{2\sqrt{2 \pi} \Phi(-1) \sqrt{e}} \\ &= 3.0502\ldots \\ &= 3.05\,\, (3\text{ s.f.}) \end{align*}