1 problem found
In the High Court of Farnia, the outcome of each case is determined by three judges: the ass, the beaver and the centaur. Each judge decides its verdict independently. Being simple creatures, they make their decisions entirely at random. Past verdicts show that the ass gives a guilty verdict with probability \(p\), the beaver gives a guilty verdict with probability \(p/3\) and the centaur gives a guilty verdict with probability \(p^2\). Let \(X\) be the number of guilty verdicts given by the three judges in a case. Given that \(\E(X)= 4/3\), find the value of \(p\). The probability that a defendant brought to trial is guilty is \(t\). The King pronounces that the defendant is guilty if at least two of the judges give a guilty verdict; otherwise, he pronounces the defendant not guilty. Find the value of \(t\) such that the probability that the King pronounces correctly is \(1/2\).
Solution: \begin{align*} && \mathbb{E}(X) &= p + \frac{p}{3} + p^2 = \frac43p+p^2 \\ \Rightarrow && \frac43 &= \frac43p+p^2 \\ \Rightarrow && 0 &= 3p^2+4p-4 \\ &&&= (3p-2)(p+2) \\ \Rightarrow && p &= \frac23, -2 \end{align*} Since \(p \in [0,1]\) we must have \(p = \frac23\). \begin{align*} && \mathbb{P}(\text{correct verdict}) &= t p+ (1-t) (1-p) \\ &&&= t(2p-1)+(1-p)\\ \Rightarrow && \frac12 &= t(2p-1)+(1-p) \\ \Rightarrow && t &= \frac{\frac12-(1-p)}{2p-1} \\ &&&= \frac{2p-1}{2(2p-1)} = \frac12 \end{align*} (so it doesn't depend at all on what the judges are doing, the only way to be fair is if the trials happen at random!)