1 problem found
If a football match ends in a draw, there may be a "penalty shoot-out". Initially the teams each take 5 shots at goal. If one team scores more times than the other, then that team wins. If the scores are level, the teams take shots alternately until one team scores and the other team does not score, both teams having taken the same number of shots. The team that scores wins. Two teams, Team A and Team B, take part in a penalty shoot-out. Their probabilities of scoring when they take a single shot are \(p_A\) and \(p_B\) respectively. Explain why the probability \(\alpha\) of neither side having won at the end of the initial \(10\)-shot period is given by $$\alpha =\sum_{i=0}^5\binom{5}{i}^2(1-p_A)^i(1-p_B)^i\,p_A^{5-i}p_B^{5-i}.$$ Show that the expected number of shots taken is \(\displaystyle 10+ \frac{2\alpha}\beta\;,\) where \(\beta=p_A+p_B-2p_Ap_B\,.\)
Solution: Note that in the first \(10\)-short period the number of goals scored by each team is \(B(5, \p_i)\). For them to be equal they must both have scored the same number of goals, ie \begin{align*} && \alpha &= \sum_{i=0}^5 \mathbb{P}(\text{both teams score }5-i) \\ &&&= \sum_{i=0}^5 \binom{5}{i} (1-p_A)^ip_A^{5-i} \binom{5}{i} (1-p_B)^i p_B^{5-i} \\ &&&= \sum_{i=0}^5 \binom{5}{i} ^2(1-p_A)^i (1-p_B)^i p_A^{5-i} p_B^{5-i} \\ \end{align*} Suppose we make it to the end of the shoot out with scores tied. The probability that we finish each round is \(p_A(1-p_B) + p_B(1-p_A)\) (the probability \(A\) wins or \(B\) wins). This is \(p_A + p_B - 2p_Ap_B = \beta\)). Therefore the number of additional rounds is geometric with parameter \(\beta\) and the expected number of rounds is \(\frac{1}{\beta}\). Each round has two shots, and there is a probability \(\alpha\) of this occuring, ie \(\frac{2\alpha}{\beta}\). Added to the \(10\) guaranteed shots we get the desired result