1 problem found
Trains leave Barchester Station for London at 12 minutes past the hour, taking 60 minutes to complete the journey and at 48 minutes past the hour taking 75 minutes to complete the journey. The arrival times of passengers for London at Barchester Station are uniformly distributed over the day and all passengers take the first available train. Show that their average journey time from arrival at Barchester Station to arrival in London is 84.6 minutes. Suppose that British Rail decide to retime the fast 60 minute train so that it leaves at \(x\) minutes past the hour. What choice of \(x\) will minimise the average journey time?
Solution: If you arrive between 12 to and 12 past, it will take 60 minutes + how many minutes you wait at the station. If you arrive between 12 past and 12 to, it will take 75 minutes plus waiting at the station. Let's say arrival time \(X \sim U(0,60)\) minutes past the hour, then travel time is. Let's say there are two random variables, \(X_{fast} \sim U(0,24)\) \(X_{slow} \sim U(0, 36)\). Then if you wait for a fast train your expected wait time is \(72\), if you wait for a slow time, your expected wait time is \(75 + 18 = 93\). There is a \(\frac{24}{60} = \frac{4}{10}\) chance of being in the first case, and \(\frac{6}{10}\) chance of the second, ie: \(\frac{4}{10} \cdot 72 + \frac{6}{10} \cdot 93 = \frac{846}{10} = 84.6\) expected wait time. Suppose the time the trains so the expected fraction of time waiting for the fast train is \(t\) and the slow train is \(1-t\). Then the expected time is: \begin{align*} t \l 30t + 60 \r + (1-t) \l 30(1-t) + 75 \r &= 60t^2 -75t + 105 \\ &= 60 \l t^2 - \frac{5}{4}t \r + 105 \\ &= 60 \l t - \frac{5}{8} \r^2 - ? + 105 \\ \end{align*} Threfore we should choose \(x\) such that \(t = \frac58\), which is \(~37.5\) minutes after the slower train, \(25.5\) minutes past.