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2009 Paper 3 Q12
D: 1700.0 B: 1516.0

  1. Albert tosses a fair coin \(k\) times, where \(k\) is a given positive integer. The number of heads he gets is \(X_1\). He then tosses the coin \(X_1\) times, getting \(X_2\) heads. He then tosses the coin \(X_2\) times, getting \(X_3\) heads. The random variables \(X_4\), \(X_5\), \(\ldots\) are defined similarly. Write down \(\E(X_1)\). By considering \(\E(X_2 \; \big\vert \; X_1 = x_1)\), or otherwise, show that \(\E(X_2) = \frac14 k\). Find \(\displaystyle \sum_{i=1}^\infty \E(X_i)\).
  2. Bertha has \(k\) fair coins. She tosses the first coin until she gets a tail. The number of heads she gets before the first tail is \(Y_1\). She then tosses the second coin until she gets a tail and the number of heads she gets with this coin before the first tail is \(Y_2\). The random variables \(Y_3, Y_4, \ldots\;\), \(Y_k\) are defined similarly, and \(Y= \sum\limits_{i=1}^k Y_i\,\). Obtain the probability generating function of \(Y\), and use it to find \(\E(Y)\), \(\var(Y)\) and \(\P(Y=r)\).


Solution:

  1. \(X_1 \sim B(k, \tfrac12)\) so \(\E[X_1] = \frac{k}{2}\) Note that \(X_2 | X_1 = x_1 \sim B(x_1, \tfrac12)\) so \(\E[X_2 | X_1 = x_1) = \frac{x_1}{2}\) or \(\E[X_2 | X_1] = \frac12 X_1\). Therefore by the tower law, \(\E[\E[X_2|X_1]] = \E[\frac12 X_1] = \frac14k\) Notice also that \(\E[X_n] = \frac1{2^n} k\) and so \begin{align*} && \sum_{i=1}^\infty \E[X_i] &= \sum_{i=1}^{\infty} \frac1{2^i} k \\ &&&= \frac{\frac12 k}{1-\frac12} = k \end{align*}
  2. Note that \(Y_1 \sim Geo(\tfrac12)-1\) which has generating function \(\E[t^{Y_1}] = \E[t^{G-1}] = \frac{\frac12 t}{1-(1-\frac12)t}\frac1{t} = \frac{\frac12}{1-\frac12t}\). Notice that \begin{align*} && \E \left [ t^Y \right] &= \E \left [ t^{\sum_{i=1}^kY_i} \right] \\ &&&= \prod_{i=1}^k \E[t^{Y_i}] \\ &&&= \frac{1}{(2-t)^k} \end{align*} Therefore \(\E[Y] = G'(1) = k(2-1)^{-(k+1)} = k\) \(\E[Y^2] = (tG'(t))'|_{t=1} = k(k+1)(2-1)^{-(k+2)}+k(2-1)^{-(k+1)} = k^2+2k\) so \(\var[Y] = k^2+2k - k^2 =2 k\). Finally \(\mathbb{P}(Y=r) = \binom{k+r-1}{k} \frac{1}{2^{r+k}}\)
[Note: this second distribution is a negative binomial distribution]