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2008 Paper 2 Q9
D: 1600.0 B: 1484.0
projectiles quadratic equation trigonometry small-angle approximation cricket trajectory optimisation applied context

In this question, use \(g=10\,\)m\,s\(^{-2}\). In cricket, a fast bowler projects a ball at \(40\,\)m\,s\(^{-1}\) from a point \(h\,\)m above the ground, which is horizontal, and at an angle \(\alpha\) above the horizontal. The trajectory is such that the ball will strike the stumps at ground level a horizontal distance of \(20\,\)m from the point of projection.

  1. Determine, in terms of \(h\), the two possible values of \(\tan\alpha\). Explain which of these two values is the more appropriate one, and deduce that the ball hits the stumps after approximately half a second.
  2. State the range of values of \(h\) for which the bowler projects the ball below the horizontal.
  3. In the case \(h=2.5\), give an approximate value in degrees, correct to two significant figures, for \(\alpha\). You need not justify the accuracy of your approximation.
[You may use the small-angle approximations \(\cos\theta \approx 1\) and \(\sin\theta\approx \theta\).]

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2006 Paper 2 Q12
D: 1600.0 B: 1516.0
probability binomial distribution Poisson distribution conditional probability Bayes' theorem cricket approximation

A cricket team has only three bowlers, Arthur, Betty and Cuba, each of whom bowls 30 balls in any match. Past performance reveals that, on average, Arthur takes one wicket for every 36 balls bowled, Betty takes one wicket for every 25 balls bowled, and Cuba takes one wicket for every 41 balls bowled.

  1. In one match, the team took exactly one wicket, but the name of the bowler was not recorded. Using a binomial model, find the probability that Arthur was the bowler.
  2. Show that the average number of wickets taken by the team in a match is approximately 3. Give with brief justification a suitable model for the number of wickets taken by the team in a match and show that the probability of the team taking at least five wickets in a given match is approximately \(\frac15\). [You may use the approximation \(\e^3 = 20\).]

Solution:

  1. \(\,\) \begin{align*} && \mathbb{P}(\text{Arthur took wicket and exactly one wicket}) &= \binom{30}{1} \frac{1}{36} \left ( \frac{35}{36} \right)^{29} \binom{30}{0} \left ( \frac{24}{25} \right)^{30} \binom{30}{0} \left ( \frac{40}{41} \right)^{30}\\ &&&= \frac{30 \cdot 35^{29} \cdot 24^{30} \cdot 40^{30}}{36^{30} \cdot 25^{30} \cdot {41}^{30}}\\ &&&= \frac{1}{35} N\\ && \mathbb{P}(\text{B took wicket and exactly one wicket}) &= \binom{30}{0}\left ( \frac{35}{36} \right)^{30} \binom{30}{1} \frac{1}{25} \left ( \frac{24}{25} \right)^{29} \binom{30}{0} \left ( \frac{40}{41} \right)^{30}\\ &&&= \frac{1}{24} N \\ && \mathbb{P}(\text{C took wicket and exactly one wicket}) &= \binom{30}{0}\left ( \frac{35}{36} \right)^{30} \binom{30}{0}\left ( \frac{24}{25} \right)^{30} \binom{30}{1} \frac{1}{41} \left ( \frac{40}{41} \right)^{29}\\ &&&= \frac{1}{40} N \\ && \mathbb{P}(\text{Arthur took wicket} | \text{exactly one wicket}) &= \frac{ \mathbb{P}(\text{Arthur took wicket and exactly one wicket}) }{ \mathbb{P}(\text{exactly one wicket}) } \\ &&&= \frac{ \frac{1}{35} N}{\frac1{35} N + \frac{1}{24}N + \frac{1}{40} N} \\ &&&= \frac{3}{10} \end{align*} Alternatively, we could look at: \begin{align*} && \mathbb{P}(X_A = 1 | X_A + X_B + X_C =1) &= \frac{\mathbb{P}(X_A = 1, X_B = 0,X_C = 0)}{\mathbb{P}(X_A = 1, X_B = 0,X_C = 0)+\mathbb{P}(X_A = 0, X_B = 1,X_C = 0)+\mathbb{P}(X_A = 0, X_B = 0,X_C = 1)} \\ &&&= \frac{\frac{\mathbb{P}(X_A = 1)}{\mathbb{P}(X_A=0)}}{\frac{\mathbb{P}(X_A = 1)}{\mathbb{P}(X_A=0)}+\frac{\mathbb{P}(X_B = 1)}{\mathbb{P}(X_B=0)}+\frac{\mathbb{P}(X_C = 1)}{\mathbb{P}(X_C=0)}} \end{align*} and we can calculate these relatively likelihoods in a similar way to above.
  2. \(\,\) \begin{align*} && \mathbb{E}(\text{number of wickets}) &= \mathbb{E} \left ( \sum_{i=1}^{90} \mathbb{1}_{i\text{th ball is a wicket}} \right) \\ &&&= \sum_{i=1}^{90} \mathbb{E} \left (\mathbb{1}_{i\text{th ball is a wicket}} \right) \\ &&&= 30 \cdot \frac{1}{36} + 30 \cdot \frac{1}{25} + 30 \cdot \frac{1}{41} \\ &&&\approx 1 + 1 + 1 = 3 \end{align*} We might model the number of wickets taken as \(Po(\lambda)\), where \(\lambda\) is the average number of wickets taken. We can think of this roughly as the Poisson approximation to the binomial where \(N\) is large and \(Np\) is small. Assuming we use \(Po(3)\) we have \begin{align*} && \mathbb{P}(\text{at least 5 wickets}) &= 1-\mathbb{P}(\text{4 or fewer wickets}) \\ &&&= 1- e^{-3} \left (1 + \frac{3}{1} + \frac{3^2}{2} + \frac{3^3}{6} + \frac{3^4}{24} \right) \\ &&&= 1 - \frac{1}{20} \left ( 1 + 3 + \frac{9}{2} + \frac{9}{2} + \frac{27}{8} \right) \\ &&&= 1 - \frac{1}{20} \left (13 + 3\tfrac38 \right) \\ &&&\approx 1 - \frac{16}{20} = \frac15 \end{align*}

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1998 Paper 2 Q11
D: 1600.0 B: 1546.5
projectiles trigonometry constant rate of change tan theta line of sight cricket relative motion calculus

A fielder, who is perfectly placed to catch a ball struck by the batsman in a game of cricket, watches the ball in flight. Assuming that the ball is struck at the fielder's eye level and is caught just in front of her eye, show that \(\frac{ {\rm d}}{{\rm d t}} (\tan\theta ) \) is constant, where \(\theta\) is the angle between the horizontal and the fielder's line of sight. In order to catch the next ball, which is also struck towards her but at a different velocity, the fielder runs at constant speed \(v\) towards the batsman. Assuming that the ground is horizontal, show that the fielder should choose \(v\) so that \(\frac{ {\rm d}}{{\rm d t}} (\tan\theta ) \) remains constant.

Solution: Set up a coordinate frame such that the position of the catch is the origin and the time of the catch is \(t = 0\) . We must have then that the trajectory of the ball is \(\mathbf{s} =\mathbf{u} t + \frac12 \mathbf{g} t^2 = \binom{u_x t}{u_y t - \frac12 gt^2}\). We must then have: \begin{align*} && \tan \theta &= \frac{u_y t - \frac12 gt^2}{u_x t} \\ &&&= \frac{u_y}{u_x} - \frac{g}{2u_x} t \\ \Rightarrow && \frac{\d}{\d \theta} \left ( \tan \theta \right) &= 0 - \frac{g}{2 u_x} \end{align*} which is clearly constant. Set coordinates so \(y\)-axis starts from eye-level and \(t = 0\) the first time the ball reaches that level. (Or move the trajectory backwards if that's not the case). Then the ball has trajectory \(\binom{u_xt}{u_yt - \frac12 gt^2}\). The ball reaches eye level a second time when \(t = \frac{2u_y}{g}\), ie at a point \(\frac{2u_xu_y}{g}\). The fielder therefore needs to have position \(f + (u_x-\frac{g}{2u_y}f)t\) at all times. Therefore \begin{align*} && \tan \theta &= \frac{u_y t - \frac12 gt^2}{f + (u_x-\frac{g}{2u_y}f)t - u_x t} \\ &&&= \frac{u_y t - \frac12 gt^2}{f(1-\frac{g}{2u_y}t)} \\ &&&= \frac{u_yt ( 1- \frac{g}{2u_y}t)}{f( 1- \frac{g}{2u_y}t)} \\ &&&= u_y t \\ \Rightarrow && \frac{\d}{\d \theta} \left ( \tan \theta \right) &= u_y \end{align*} Ie \( \frac{\d}{\d \theta} \left ( \tan \theta \right) \) is constant as required.

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