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1998 Paper 3 Q12
D: 1700.0 B: 1482.8

The mountain villages \(A,B,C\) and \(D\) lie at the vertices of a tetrahedron, and each pair of villages is joined by a road. After a snowfall the probability that any road is blocked is \(p\), and is independent of the conditions of any other road. The probability that, after a snowfall, it is possible to travel from any village to any other village by some route is \(P\). Show that $$ P =1- p^2(6p^3-12p^2+3p+4). $$ %In the case \(p={1\over 3}\) show that this probability is \({208 \over 243}\).