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2012 Paper 2 Q13
D: 1600.0 B: 1516.0

In this question, you may assume that \(\displaystyle \int_0^\infty \!\!\! \e^{-x^2/2} \d x = \sqrt{\tfrac12 \pi}\,\). The number of supermarkets situated in any given region can be modelled by a Poisson random variable, where the mean is \(k\) times the area of the given region. Find the probability that there are no supermarkets within a circle of radius \(y\). The random variable \(Y\) denotes the distance between a randomly chosen point in the region and the nearest supermarket. Write down \(\P(Y < y)\) and hence show that the probability density function of \(Y\) is \(\displaystyle 2\pi y k \e^{-\pi k y^2}\) for \(y\ge0\). Find \(\E(Y)\) and show that \(\var(Y) = \dfrac{4-\pi}{4\pi k}\).


Solution: A circle radius \(y\) has a number of supermarkets \(X\) where \(X \sim Po(k \pi y^2)\). \[ \mathbb{P}(X = 0) = e^{-k\pi y^2} \frac{1}{0!} = e^{-k\pi y^2} \] The probability \(\mathbb{P}(Y < y) = 1-\mathbb{P}(Y \geq y) = 1-e^{-k\pi y^2}\), and in particular \(f_Y(y) = 2k\pi y e^{-k\pi y^2}\) (by differentiating). \begin{align*} && \mathbb{E}(Y) &= \int_0^\infty yf_Y(y) \d y \\ &&&= \int_0^\infty 2\pi y^2 k e^{-\pi k y^2} \d y \\ \sigma^2 = \frac{1}{2k\pi}:&&&= \pi k \sqrt{2 \pi}\sigma \int_{-\infty}^\infty \frac{1}{\sqrt{2 \pi} \sigma }y^2 e^{-\frac12 \cdot 2\pi k y^2} \d y \\ &&&=\pi k \sqrt{2 \pi}\sigma \mathbb{E}\left (N(0, \sigma^2)^2 \right) \\ &&&= \pi k \sqrt{2 \pi}\sigma\sigma^2 \\ &&&= \pi k \sqrt{2 \pi} \frac{1}{(2k\pi)^{3/2}} \\ &&&= \frac{1}{2\sqrt{k}} \end{align*} \begin{align*} && \mathbb{E}(Y^2) &= \int_0^\infty y^2f_Y(y) \d y \\ &&&= \int_0^\infty 2\pi y^3 k e^{-\pi k y^2} \d y \\ &&&= \int_0^{\infty}y^2 2y \pi k e^{-\pi k y^2} \d y \\ \\ &&&= \left [-y^2 e^{-\pi k y^2}\right]_0^{\infty}+\int_0^\infty 2ye^{-\pi k y^2} \d y \\ &&&= \left [-\frac{1}{\pi k}e^{-\pi k y^2} \right]_0^{\infty} \\ &&&= \frac{1}{\pi k} \\ \Rightarrow && \textrm{Var}(Y) &= \mathbb{E}(Y^2) - \left [ \mathbb{E}(Y)\right]^2 \\ &&&= \frac{1}{\pi k} - \frac{1}{4k} \\ &&&= \frac{4 - \pi}{4\pi k} \end{align*}

2009 Paper 2 Q12
D: 1600.0 B: 1496.6

A continuous random variable \(X\) has probability density function given by \[ \f(x) = \begin{cases} 0 & \mbox{for } x<0 \\ k\e^{-2 x^2} & \mbox{for } 0\le x< \infty \;,\\ \end{cases} \] where \(k\) is a constant.

  1. Sketch the graph of \(\f(x)\).
  2. Find the value of \(k\).
  3. Determine \(\E(X)\) and \(\var(X)\).
  4. Use statistical tables to find, to three significant figures, the median value of \(X\).


Solution:

  1. \par
    TikZ diagram
  2. Let \(Y \sim N(0,\frac14)\), then: \begin{align*} &&\int_0^\infty \frac{1}{\sqrt{2 \pi \cdot \frac14}} e^{-2x^2} \, dx &= \frac12\\ \Rightarrow && \int_0^\infty e^{-2x^2} &= \frac{\sqrt{\pi}}{2 \sqrt{2}} \\ \Rightarrow && k &= \boxed{\frac{2\sqrt{2}}{\sqrt{\pi}}} \end{align*}
  3. \begin{align*} \mathbb{E}[X] &= \int_0^\infty x f(x) \, dx \\ &= \frac{2\sqrt{2}}{\sqrt{\pi}}\int_0^\infty x e^{-2x^2}\, dx \\ &= \frac{2\sqrt{2}}{\sqrt{\pi}} \left [-\frac{1}{4}e^{-2x^2} \right]_0^\infty \\ &= \frac{1}{\sqrt{2\pi}} \\ \end{align*} In order to calculate \(\mathbb{E}(X^2)\) it is useful to consider the related computation \(\mathbb{E}(Y^2)\). In fact, by symmetry, these will be the same values. Therefore \(\mathbb{E}(X^2) = \mathbb{E}(Y^2) = \mathrm{Var}(Y) = \frac{1}{4}\) (since \(\mathbb{E}(Y) = 0\)). Therefore \(\mathrm{Var}(Y) = \mathbb{E}(Y^2) - \mathbb{E}(Y)^2 = \frac14 - \frac{1}{2\pi}\)
  4. \begin{align*} && \mathbb{P}(X < x) &= \frac12 \\ \Leftrightarrow && 2\mathbb{P}(0 \leq Y < x) &= \frac12 \\ \Leftrightarrow && 2\l \mathbb{P}(Y < x) - \frac12 \r &= \frac12 \\ \Leftrightarrow && \mathbb{P}(Y < x)&= \frac34 \\ \Leftrightarrow && \mathbb{P}(\frac{Y-0}{1/2} < \frac{x}{1/2})&= \frac34 \\ \Leftrightarrow && \mathbb{P}(Z < \frac{x}{1/2})&= \frac34 \\ \Leftrightarrow && \Phi(2x)&= \frac34 \\ \Leftrightarrow && 2x &= 0.6744895\cdots \\ \Leftrightarrow && x &= 0.3372\cdots \\ \Leftrightarrow && &= 0.337 \, (3 \text{sf}) \\ \end{align*}

2005 Paper 1 Q14
D: 1516.0 B: 1513.9

The random variable \(X\) can take the value \(X=-1\), and also any value in the range \(0\le X <\infty\,\). The distribution of \(X\) is given by \[ \P(X=-1) =m \,, \ \ \ \ \ \ \ \P(0\le X\le x) = k(1-\e^{-x})\,, \] for any non-negative number \(x\), where \(k\) and \(m\) are constants, and \(m <\frac12\,\).

  1. Find \(k\) in terms of \(m\).
  2. Show that \(\E(X)= 1-2m\,\).
  3. Find, in terms of \(m\), \(\var (X)\) and the median value of \(X\).
  4. Given that \[ \int_0^\infty y^2 \e^{-y^2} \d y = \tfrac14 \sqrt{ \pi}\;,\] find \(\E\big(\vert X \vert^{\frac12}\big)\,\) in terms of \(m\).


Solution:

  1. We must have the total probability summing to \(1\), therefore \(1 =m + k\) (as \(x \to \infty\)) therefore \(k = 1-m\).
  2. \(\,\) \begin{align*} && \E[X] &= \mathbb{P}(X=-1) \cdot (-1) + \int_0^{\infty} kx e^{-x} \d x \\ &&&= -m + (1-m) = 1-2m \end{align*}
  3. \(\,\) \begin{align*} && \var[X] &= \E[X^2]-\E[X]^2 \\ &&&= \mathbb{P}(X=-1)\cdot(-1)^2 + (1-m)\int_0^{\infty} x^2e^{-x} \d x - (1-2m)^2 \\ &&&= m + (1-m)(1+1^2) - (1-2m)^2 \\ &&&= 3-4m - 1+4m -4m^2 \\ &&&= 2(1-m^2) \end{align*} To find the median \(q\), we need \begin{align*} && \frac12 &= \mathbb{P}(X \leq q) \\ &&&= m + (1-m)(1-e^{-q}) \\ \Rightarrow && e^{-q} &= 1-\frac{\frac12-m}{1-m} \\ &&&= \frac{1-m - \frac12+m}{1-m} \\ &&&= \frac{1}{2(1-m)} \\ \Rightarrow && q &= \ln 2(1-m) \end{align*}
  4. \(\,\) \begin{align*} && \E\left [|X|^{\frac12}\right] &= \mathbb{P}(X=-1) \cdot 1 + \int_0^{\infty} \sqrt{x} (1-m)e^{-x} \d x \\ &&&= m + (1-m)\int_0^\infty \sqrt{x} e^{-x} \d x \\ u^2 = x, \d x = 2u \d u : &&&= m + (1-m) \int_{u=0}^{u=\infty} u e^{-u^2} \cdot 2u \d u \\ &&&= m + 2(1-m) \int_0^{\infty} u^2 e^{-u^2} \d u \\ &&&= m + (1-m)\frac{\sqrt{\pi}}2 \end{align*}