2006 Paper 2 Q13

Year: 2006
Paper: 2
Question Number: 13

Course: LFM Stats And Pure
Section: Conditional Probability

Difficulty: 1600.0 Banger: 1516.0

Problem

I know that ice-creams come in \(n\) different sizes, but I don't know what the sizes are. I am offered one of each in succession, in random order. I am certainly going to choose one - the bigger the better - but I am not allowed more than one. My strategy is to reject the first ice-cream I am offered and choose the first one thereafter that is bigger than the first one I was offered; if the first ice-cream offered is in fact the biggest one, then I have to put up with the last one, however small. Let \(\P_n(k)\) be the probability that I choose the \(k\)th biggest ice-cream, where \(k=1\) is the biggest and \(k=n\) is the smallest.
  1. Show that \(\P_4(1) = \frac{11}{24}\) and find \(\P_4(2)\), \(\P_4(3)\) and \(\P_4(4)\).
  2. Find an expression for \(\P_n(1)\).

No solution available for this problem.

Rating Information

Difficulty Rating: 1600.0

Difficulty Comparisons: 0

Banger Rating: 1516.0

Banger Comparisons: 1

Show LaTeX source
Problem source
I know that 
ice-creams come in $n$ different sizes, but I don't know what the sizes are.
I am offered one of each in 
succession, in random order.
I am certainly going to choose one - the bigger
the better -  but I
am not allowed more than one. My strategy is to reject the first  
ice-cream I am offered
 and choose the  first one thereafter  that is bigger than the first 
one I was offered; if the first ice-cream offered is in fact the biggest one,
then I have to put up with the last one, however small.
Let $\P_n(k)$ be the probability that I choose the $k$th biggest ice-cream,
where $k=1$ is the biggest and $k=n$ is the smallest.
\begin{questionparts}
\item Show that $\P_4(1) = \frac{11}{24}$ and find $\P_4(2)$, $\P_4(3)$
and $\P_4(4)$.
\item Find an expression  for $\P_n(1)$.
\end{questionparts}