2005 Paper 2 Q12

Year: 2005
Paper: 2
Question Number: 12

Course: LFM Stats And Pure
Section: Conditional Probability

Difficulty: 1600.0 Banger: 1500.0

Problem

The twins Anna and Bella share a computer and never sign their e-mails. When I e-mail them, only the twin currently online responds. The probability that it is Anna who is online is \(p\) and she answers each question I ask her truthfully with probability \(a\), independently of all her other answers, even if a question is repeated. The probability that it is Bella who is online is~\(q\), where \(q=1-p\), and she answers each question truthfully with probability \(b\), independently of all her other answers, even if a question is repeated.
  1. I send the twins the e-mail: `Toss a fair coin and answer the following question. Did the coin come down heads?'. I receive the answer `yes'. Show that the probability that the coin did come down heads is \(\frac{1}{2}\) if and only if \(2(ap+bq)=1\).
  2. I send the twins the e-mail: `Toss a fair coin and answer the following question. Did the coin come down heads?'. I receive the answer `yes'. I then send the e-mail: `Did the coin come down heads?' and I receive the answer `no'. Show that the probability (taking into account these answers) that the coin did come down heads is \(\frac{1}{2}\,\).
  3. I send the twins the e-mail: `Toss a fair coin and answer the following question. Did the coin come down heads?'. I receive the answer `yes'. I then send the e-mail: `Did the coin come down heads?' and I receive the answer `yes'. Show that, if \(2(ap+bq)=1\), the probability (taking into account these answers) that the coin did come down heads is \(\frac{1}{2}\,\).

No solution available for this problem.

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Difficulty Rating: 1600.0

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Banger Rating: 1500.0

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Problem source
The twins Anna and Bella share a computer and never sign their e-mails.
 When I e-mail them, only the twin
currently online responds.  The
 probability that it is Anna who is online is $p$ and she answers each
 question I ask her truthfully with probability $a$, independently of all her
 other answers, even if a question is repeated. The probability that it is
 Bella  who is online is~$q$, where $q=1-p$, and she answers each question
 truthfully with probability $b$, independently of all her other answers,
 even if a question is repeated.
\begin{questionparts}
\item
I send the twins the  e-mail: 
`Toss a fair coin and answer the following  question. 
Did the coin come down heads?'. I receive the answer `yes'.
Show that the probability that the coin
did come down heads is $\frac{1}{2}$ if and
only if  $2(ap+bq)=1$.
\item
I send the twins the e-mail: 
`Toss a fair coin and answer  the following question. 
Did the coin come down heads?'. I receive the answer `yes'.
I then send the e-mail: `Did the coin come down heads?' and I receive
the answer `no'. Show that the probability (taking into
account these answers) that the coin did come down heads is $\frac{1}{2}\,$.
\item
I send the twins the e-mail: `Toss a fair coin and answer the following
question. Did the coin come down heads?'. I receive the answer `yes'.
I then send the e-mail: `Did the coin come down heads?' and I receive
the answer `yes'. Show that, if $2(ap+bq)=1$,
the probability (taking into account these answers) that the coin did
come down heads is $\frac{1}{2}\,$.
\end{questionparts}