2004 Paper 1 Q14

Year: 2004
Paper: 1
Question Number: 14

Course: LFM Stats And Pure
Section: Probability Definitions

Difficulty: 1500.0 Banger: 1488.1

Problem

Three pirates are sharing out the contents of a treasure chest containing \(n\) gold coins and \(2\) lead coins. The first pirate takes out coins one at a time until he takes out one of the lead coins. The second pirate then takes out coins one at a time until she draws the second lead coin. The third pirate takes out all the gold coins remaining in the chest. Find:
  1. the probability that the first pirate will have some gold coins;
  2. the probability that the second pirate will have some gold coins;
  3. the probability that all three pirates will have some gold coins.

Solution

  1. The first pirate will have some gold coins as long as the very first coin drawn is a gold coin, ie \(\frac{n}{n+2}\).
  2. The probability the second pirate will have some gold coins is the probability the two lead coins are separate. There are \((n+2)!\) ways to arrange the coins, and there are \((n+1)! \cdot 2\) ways to arrange the coins where they are together, therefore the probability is: \[ 1 - \frac{2(n+1)!}{(n+2)!} = 1 - \frac{2}{n+2} = \frac{n}{n+2} \]
  3. For all three pirates to have some gold coins we need the lead coins to be separate and not first or last. If we line up all \(n\) gold coins, there are \(n-1\) gaps between them we could place the \(2\) lead coins in, therefore \(\binom{n-1}{2}\) ways to place the lead coins with the restriction. Without the restriction there are \(\binom{n+2}{2}\) ways to choose where to put the coins, therefore \begin{align*} && P &= \frac{\binom{n-1}{2}}{\binom{n+2}{2}} \\ &&&= \frac{(n-1)(n-2)}{(n+2)(n+1)} \end{align*} [Notice this is clearly \(0\) if there are only \(1\) or \(2\) gold coins]
Rating Information

Difficulty Rating: 1500.0

Difficulty Comparisons: 0

Banger Rating: 1488.1

Banger Comparisons: 3

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Problem source
Three pirates are sharing out the contents of a treasure chest containing $n$ gold coins and $2$ lead coins. The first pirate takes out coins one at a time until he takes out one of the lead coins. The second pirate then takes out coins one at a time until she draws the second lead coin.  The third pirate takes out all the gold coins remaining in the chest. 
Find:
\begin{questionparts}
\item the probability that the first pirate will have some gold coins;
\item the probability that the second pirate will have some gold coins;
\item the probability that all three pirates will have some gold coins. 
\end{questionparts}
Solution source
\begin{questionparts}
\item The first pirate will have some gold coins as long as the very first coin drawn is a gold coin, ie $\frac{n}{n+2}$.

\item The probability the second pirate will have some gold coins is the probability the two lead coins are separate. There are $(n+2)!$ ways to arrange the coins, and there are $(n+1)! \cdot 2$ ways to arrange the coins where they are together, therefore the probability is:

\[ 1 - \frac{2(n+1)!}{(n+2)!} = 1 - \frac{2}{n+2} = \frac{n}{n+2} \]

\item For all three pirates to have some gold coins we need the lead coins to be separate and not first or last. If we line up all $n$ gold coins, there are $n-1$ gaps between them we could place the $2$ lead coins in, therefore $\binom{n-1}{2}$ ways to place the lead coins with the restriction. Without the restriction there are $\binom{n+2}{2}$ ways to choose where to put the coins, therefore

\begin{align*}
&& P &= \frac{\binom{n-1}{2}}{\binom{n+2}{2}} \\
&&&= \frac{(n-1)(n-2)}{(n+2)(n+1)}
\end{align*}

[Notice this is clearly $0$ if there are only $1$ or $2$ gold coins]
\end{questionparts}