Year: 2003
Paper: 3
Question Number: 13
Course: LFM Stats And Pure
Section: Conditional Probability
No solution available for this problem.
Difficulty Rating: 1700.0
Difficulty Comparisons: 0
Banger Rating: 1500.0
Banger Comparisons: 0
In a rabbit warren, underground chambers
$A, B, C$ and $D$ are at the vertices of a square,
and burrows join $A$ to $B$, \ $B$ to $C$, \ $C$ to $D$ and $D$ to $A$.
Each of the chambers also has a tunnel to the surface.
A rabbit finding itself in any chamber runs along one
of the two burrows to a neighbouring chamber, or
leaves the burrow through the tunnel to the surface.
Each of these three possibilities is equally likely.
Let $p_A\,$, $p_B\,$, $p_C$ and $p_D$ be the probabilities
of a rabbit leaving the burrow through the tunnel from chamber $A$,
given that it is currently in chamber $A, B, C$ or $D$, respectively.
\begin{questionparts}
\item Explain why $p_A = \frac13 + \frac13p_B + \frac13 p_D$.
\item Determine $p_A\,$.
\item Find the probability
that a rabbit which starts in chamber $A$ does not visit chamber~$C$,
given that it eventually leaves the burrow through the tunnel in chamber $A$.
\end{questionparts}