2003 Paper 3 Q13

Year: 2003
Paper: 3
Question Number: 13

Course: LFM Stats And Pure
Section: Conditional Probability

Difficulty: 1700.0 Banger: 1500.0

Problem

In a rabbit warren, underground chambers \(A, B, C\) and \(D\) are at the vertices of a square, and burrows join \(A\) to \(B\), \ \(B\) to \(C\), \ \(C\) to \(D\) and \(D\) to \(A\). Each of the chambers also has a tunnel to the surface. A rabbit finding itself in any chamber runs along one of the two burrows to a neighbouring chamber, or leaves the burrow through the tunnel to the surface. Each of these three possibilities is equally likely. Let \(p_A\,\), \(p_B\,\), \(p_C\) and \(p_D\) be the probabilities of a rabbit leaving the burrow through the tunnel from chamber \(A\), given that it is currently in chamber \(A, B, C\) or \(D\), respectively.
  1. Explain why \(p_A = \frac13 + \frac13p_B + \frac13 p_D\).
  2. Determine \(p_A\,\).
  3. Find the probability that a rabbit which starts in chamber \(A\) does not visit chamber~\(C\), given that it eventually leaves the burrow through the tunnel in chamber \(A\).

No solution available for this problem.

Rating Information

Difficulty Rating: 1700.0

Difficulty Comparisons: 0

Banger Rating: 1500.0

Banger Comparisons: 0

Show LaTeX source
Problem source
In a rabbit warren, underground chambers 
$A, B, C$ and $D$ are at the vertices of a square, 
and burrows join $A$ to $B$, \  $B$ to $C$, \ $C$ to $D$ and $D$ to $A$. 
Each of the chambers also has a tunnel to the surface. 
A rabbit finding itself in any chamber runs along one 
of the two burrows to a neighbouring chamber, or 
leaves the burrow through the tunnel to the surface. 
Each of these three possibilities is equally likely.
Let $p_A\,$, $p_B\,$, $p_C$ and $p_D$ be the probabilities 
of a rabbit leaving the burrow through the tunnel from chamber $A$, 
given that it is currently in chamber $A, B, C$ or $D$, respectively.
\begin{questionparts}
\item Explain why  $p_A = \frac13 + \frac13p_B + \frac13 p_D$.
\item Determine $p_A\,$.
\item Find the probability 
that a rabbit which starts in chamber $A$ does not visit chamber~$C$, 
given that it eventually leaves the burrow through the tunnel in chamber $A$.
\end{questionparts}