2002 Paper 3 Q12

Year: 2002
Paper: 3
Question Number: 12

Course: LFM Stats And Pure
Section: Conditional Probability

Difficulty: 1700.0 Banger: 1502.1

Problem

In a game, a player tosses a biased coin repeatedly until two successive tails occur, when the game terminates. For each head which occurs the player wins \(\pounds 1\). If \(E\) is the expected number of tosses of the coin in the course of a game, and \(p\) is the probability of a head, explain why \[ E = p \l 1 + E \r + \l 1 - p \r p \l 2 + E \r + 2 \l 1 - p \r ^2\,, \] and hence determine \(E\) in terms of \(p\). Find also, in terms of \(p\), the expected winnings in the course of a game. A second game is played, with the same rules, except that the player continues to toss the coin until \(r\) successive tails occur. Show that the expected number of tosses in the course of a game is given by the expression \(\displaystyle {1 - q^r \over p q^r}\,\), where \(q = 1 - p\).

No solution available for this problem.

Rating Information

Difficulty Rating: 1700.0

Difficulty Comparisons: 0

Banger Rating: 1502.1

Banger Comparisons: 2

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Problem source
In a game, a player tosses a biased coin 
repeatedly until two successive tails occur, when the game terminates. 
For each head which occurs the player wins $\pounds 1$. 
If $E$ is the expected number of tosses of the 
coin in the course of a game, and $p$ is the probability of a head, explain why
\[
E = p \l 1 + E \r + \l 1 - p \r p \l 2 + E \r + 2 \l 1 - p \r ^2\,,
\]
and hence determine $E$ in terms of $p$. 
Find also, in terms of $p$, the expected winnings in the course of a game.
A second game is played, 
with the same rules, except that the player continues to 
toss the coin until $r$ successive tails occur. 
Show that the expected number of tosses in the 
course of a game is given by the expression 
$\displaystyle {1 - q^r \over p q^r}\,$, where $q = 1 - p$.