Year: 2002
Paper: 1
Question Number: 14
Course: UFM Statistics
Section: Exponential Distribution
No solution available for this problem.
Difficulty Rating: 1500.0
Difficulty Comparisons: 0
Banger Rating: 1516.0
Banger Comparisons: 1
In order to get money from a cash dispenser
I have to punch in an
identification number. I have forgotten my identification number,
but I do know that it is equally likely to be any one of the
integers $1$, $2$, \ldots , $n$.
I plan to punch in integers in order until I get the right
one. I can do this at the rate of $r$ integers per minute.
As soon as I punch in the first wrong number, the police will be alerted.
The probability that they will arrive within a time $t$ minutes
is $1-\e^{-\lambda t}$, where $\lambda$ is a positive constant.
If I follow my plan, show that the probability of the police arriving
before I get my money is
\[
\sum_{k=1}^n \frac{1-\e^{-\lambda(k-1)/r}}n\;.
\]
Simplify the sum.
On past experience, I know that I will be so flustered that I will
just punch in possible integers at random, without noticing which I have
already tried. Show that the probability of the police arriving before
I get my money is
\[
1-\frac1{n-(n-1)\e^{-\lambda/r}} \;.
\]