2002 Paper 1 Q14

Year: 2002
Paper: 1
Question Number: 14

Course: UFM Statistics
Section: Exponential Distribution

Difficulty: 1500.0 Banger: 1516.0

Problem

In order to get money from a cash dispenser I have to punch in an identification number. I have forgotten my identification number, but I do know that it is equally likely to be any one of the integers \(1\), \(2\), \ldots , \(n\). I plan to punch in integers in order until I get the right one. I can do this at the rate of \(r\) integers per minute. As soon as I punch in the first wrong number, the police will be alerted. The probability that they will arrive within a time \(t\) minutes is \(1-\e^{-\lambda t}\), where \(\lambda\) is a positive constant. If I follow my plan, show that the probability of the police arriving before I get my money is \[ \sum_{k=1}^n \frac{1-\e^{-\lambda(k-1)/r}}n\;. \] Simplify the sum. On past experience, I know that I will be so flustered that I will just punch in possible integers at random, without noticing which I have already tried. Show that the probability of the police arriving before I get my money is \[ 1-\frac1{n-(n-1)\e^{-\lambda/r}} \;. \]

No solution available for this problem.

Rating Information

Difficulty Rating: 1500.0

Difficulty Comparisons: 0

Banger Rating: 1516.0

Banger Comparisons: 1

Show LaTeX source
Problem source
In order to get money from a cash dispenser 
I have to punch in an
identification  number.  I have forgotten my  identification number, 
but I do know that it is equally likely to be any one of the 
integers $1$, $2$, \ldots , $n$.
I plan to punch in integers  in order until I get the right 
one. I can do this at the rate of $r$ integers  per minute. 
As soon as I punch in the first  wrong number, the police will be alerted. 
The probability that  they will arrive within  a time $t$ minutes 
is $1-\e^{-\lambda t}$, where $\lambda$ is a  positive constant.
If I follow my plan, show that the probability of the police arriving
before I get my money is
\[
\sum_{k=1}^n \frac{1-\e^{-\lambda(k-1)/r}}n\;.
\]
Simplify the sum.
On past experience, I know that I will  be so flustered that I will 
just punch in possible integers at random, without noticing which  I have 
already tried. Show that the probability of the police arriving before
I get my money is
\[
1-\frac1{n-(n-1)\e^{-\lambda/r}} \;.
\]