Year: 2001
Paper: 3
Question Number: 13
Course: LFM Stats And Pure
Section: Conditional Probability
No solution available for this problem.
Difficulty Rating: 1700.0
Difficulty Comparisons: 0
Banger Rating: 1500.0
Banger Comparisons: 0
In a game for two players, a fair coin is tossed repeatedly. Each player
is assigned a sequence of heads and tails and the player whose sequence appears first wins.
Four players, $A$, $B$, $C$ and $D$ take turns to play the game.
Each time they play, $A$ is assigned the sequence
TTH (i.e.~Tail then Tail then Head), $B$ is assigned THH,
$C$ is assigned HHT and $D$ is assigned~HTT.
\begin{questionparts}
\item
$A$ and $B$ play the game.
Let
$p_{\mathstrut\mbox{\tiny HH}}$,
$p_{\mathstrut\mbox{\tiny HT}}$,
$p_{\mathstrut\mbox{\tiny TH}}$ and
$p_{\mathstrut\mbox{\tiny TT}}$
be the probabilities of $A$ winning the
game given that the first two tosses of the coin show HH, HT, TH and TT, respectively.
Explain why
$p_{\mathstrut\mbox{\tiny TT}} = 1\,$,
and why
$p_{\mathstrut\mbox{\tiny HT}} = {1 \over 2} \,
p_{\mathstrut\mbox{\tiny TH}} +
{1\over 2} \,
p_{\mathstrut\mbox{\tiny TT}}\,$.
Show that
$p_{\mathstrut\mbox{\tiny HH}} =
p_{\mathstrut\mbox{\tiny HT}}
= {2 \over 3}$
and that
$p_{\mathstrut\mbox{\tiny TH}} = {1\over 3}\,$.
Deduce that the probability that A wins the game is ${2\over 3}\,$.
\item $B$ and $C$ play the game.
Find the probability that $B$ wins.
\item Show that if $C$ plays $D$, then $C$ is more likely to win than $D$,
but that if $D$ plays $A$, then $D$ is more likely to win than $A$.
\end{questionparts}