2001 Paper 3 Q13

Year: 2001
Paper: 3
Question Number: 13

Course: LFM Stats And Pure
Section: Conditional Probability

Difficulty: 1700.0 Banger: 1500.0

Problem

In a game for two players, a fair coin is tossed repeatedly. Each player is assigned a sequence of heads and tails and the player whose sequence appears first wins. Four players, \(A\), \(B\), \(C\) and \(D\) take turns to play the game. Each time they play, \(A\) is assigned the sequence TTH (i.e.~Tail then Tail then Head), \(B\) is assigned THH, \(C\) is assigned HHT and \(D\) is assigned~HTT.
  1. \(A\) and \(B\) play the game. Let \(p_{\mathstrut\mbox{\tiny HH}}\), \(p_{\mathstrut\mbox{\tiny HT}}\), \(p_{\mathstrut\mbox{\tiny TH}}\) and \(p_{\mathstrut\mbox{\tiny TT}}\) be the probabilities of \(A\) winning the game given that the first two tosses of the coin show HH, HT, TH and TT, respectively. Explain why \(p_{\mathstrut\mbox{\tiny TT}} = 1\,\), and why $p_{\mathstrut\mbox{\tiny HT}} = {1 \over 2} \, p_{\mathstrut\mbox{\tiny TH}} + {1\over 2} \, p_{\mathstrut\mbox{\tiny TT}}\,$. Show that $p_{\mathstrut\mbox{\tiny HH}} = p_{\mathstrut\mbox{\tiny HT}} = {2 \over 3}$ and that \(p_{\mathstrut\mbox{\tiny TH}} = {1\over 3}\,\). Deduce that the probability that A wins the game is \({2\over 3}\,\).
  2. \(B\) and \(C\) play the game. Find the probability that \(B\) wins.
  3. Show that if \(C\) plays \(D\), then \(C\) is more likely to win than \(D\), but that if \(D\) plays \(A\), then \(D\) is more likely to win than \(A\).

No solution available for this problem.

Rating Information

Difficulty Rating: 1700.0

Difficulty Comparisons: 0

Banger Rating: 1500.0

Banger Comparisons: 0

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Problem source
In a  game for two players,  a fair coin is tossed repeatedly. Each player 
is assigned a sequence of heads and tails and the player whose sequence appears first wins.
Four players, $A$, $B$, $C$ and $D$ take turns to play the game. 
Each time they play, $A$ is assigned the sequence
TTH (i.e.~Tail then Tail then Head),  $B$ is  assigned  THH,
$C$ is assigned HHT and $D$ is assigned~HTT.
\begin{questionparts}
\item
$A$ and $B$ play the   game. 
Let 
$p_{\mathstrut\mbox{\tiny HH}}$, 
$p_{\mathstrut\mbox{\tiny HT}}$, 
$p_{\mathstrut\mbox{\tiny TH}}$ and 
$p_{\mathstrut\mbox{\tiny TT}}$ 
be the probabilities of $A$ winning the
game  given that the first two tosses of the coin show HH,  HT, TH and TT, respectively.
Explain why 
$p_{\mathstrut\mbox{\tiny TT}} = 1\,$, 
and why 
$p_{\mathstrut\mbox{\tiny HT}} = {1 \over 2} \,
p_{\mathstrut\mbox{\tiny TH}} + 
{1\over 2} \,
p_{\mathstrut\mbox{\tiny TT}}\,$.
Show that 
$p_{\mathstrut\mbox{\tiny HH}} = 
p_{\mathstrut\mbox{\tiny HT}} 
= {2 \over 3}$ 
and that 
$p_{\mathstrut\mbox{\tiny TH}} = {1\over 3}\,$. 
Deduce that the probability that A wins the game is ${2\over 3}\,$.
\item $B$ and $C$ play the game.
Find the probability that  $B$ wins.
\item Show that if $C$ plays $D$, then  $C$ is more likely to win than $D$, 
but that if $D$ plays $A$, then $D$ is more likely to win than $A$.
\end{questionparts}