1996 Paper 3 Q12

Year: 1996
Paper: 3
Question Number: 12

Course: LFM Stats And Pure
Section: Conditional Probability

Difficulty: 1700.0 Banger: 1554.3

Problem

It has been observed that Professor Ecks proves three types of theorems: 1, those that are correct and new; 2, those that are correct, but already known; 3, those that are false. It has also been observed that, if a certain of her theorems is of type \(i\), then her next theorem is of type \(j\) with probability \(p\low_{ij},\) where \(p\low_{ij}\) is the entry in the \(i\)th row and \(j\)th column of the following array: \[ \begin{pmatrix}0.3 & 0.3 & 0.4\\ 0.2 & 0.4 & 0.4\\ 0.1 & 0.3 & 0.6 \end{pmatrix}\,. \] Let \(a_{i},\) \(i=1,2,3\), be the probability that a given theorem is of type \(i\), and let \(b_{j}\) be the consequent probability that the next theorem is of type \(j\).
  1. Explain why \(b_{j}=a\low_{1}p\low_{1j}+a\low_{2}p\low_{2j}+a\low_{3}p\low_{3j}\,.\)
  2. Find values of \(a\low_{1},a\low_{2}\) and \(a\low_{3}\) such that \(b_{i}=a_{i}\) for \(i=1,2,3.\)
  3. For these values of the \(a_{i}\) find the probabilities \(q\low_{ij}\) that, if a particular theorem is of type \(j\), then the \textit{preceding }theorem was of type \(i\).

No solution available for this problem.

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Difficulty Rating: 1700.0

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Banger Rating: 1554.3

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Problem source
It has been observed that Professor Ecks proves three types of theorems:
1, those that are correct and new; 2, those that are correct, but
already known; 3, those that are false. It has also been observed
that, if a certain of her theorems is of type $i$, then her next
theorem is of type $j$ with probability $p\low_{ij},$ where $p\low_{ij}$
is the entry in the $i$th row and $j$th column of the following
array: 
\[
\begin{pmatrix}0.3 & 0.3 & 0.4\\
0.2 & 0.4 & 0.4\\
0.1 & 0.3 & 0.6
\end{pmatrix}\,.
\]
Let $a_{i},$ $i=1,2,3$, be the probability that a given theorem
is of type $i$, and let $b_{j}$ be the consequent probability that
the next theorem is of type $j$. 
\begin{questionparts}
\item Explain why $b_{j}=a\low_{1}p\low_{1j}+a\low_{2}p\low_{2j}+a\low_{3}p\low_{3j}\,.$
\item Find values of $a\low_{1},a\low_{2}$ and $a\low_{3}$ such that $b_{i}=a_{i}$
for $i=1,2,3.$
\item For these values of the $a_{i}$ find the probabilities $q\low_{ij}$
that, if a particular theorem is of type $j$, then the \textit{preceding
}theorem was of type $i$. 
\end{questionparts}