1996 Paper 1 Q14

Year: 1996
Paper: 1
Question Number: 14

Course: LFM Stats And Pure
Section: Conditional Probability

Difficulty: 1484.0 Banger: 1484.0

Problem

A biased coin, with a probability \(p\) of coming up heads and a probability \(q=1-p\) of coming up tails, is tossed repeatedly. Let \(A\) be the event that the first run of \(r\) successive heads occurs before the first run of \(s\) successive tails. If \(H\) is the even that on the first toss the coin comes up heads and \(T\) is the event that it comes up tails, show that \begin{alignat*}{1} \mathrm{P}(A|H) & =p^{\alpha}+(1-p^{\alpha})\mathrm{P}(A|T),\\ \mathrm{P}(A|T) & =(1-q^{\beta})\mathrm{P}(A|H), \end{alignat*} where \(\alpha\) and \(\beta\) are to be determined. Use these two equations to find \(\mathrm{P}(A|H),\) \(\mathrm{P}(A|T),\) and hence \(\mathrm{P}(A).\)

Solution

\begin{align*} && \P(A|H) &= \P(\text{achieve }r\text{ heads immediately}) + \P(\text{don't and then achieve it from having flipped a tail}) \\ &&&= p^{r-1} + (1-p^{r-1}) \cdot \P(A|T) \\ && \P(A|T) &= (1-q^{s-1})\P(A|H) \\ \\ &&\P(A|H) &= p^{r-1}+(1-p^{r-1})(1-q^{s-1})\P(A|H) \\ \Rightarrow && \P(A|H) &= \frac{p^{r-1}}{1-(1-p^{r-1})(1-q^{s-1})} \\ && \P(A|T) &= \frac{(1-q^{s-1})p^{r-1}}{1-(1-p^{r-1})(1-q^{s-1})} \\ && \P(A) &= \frac{(2-q^{s-1})p^{r-1}}{2(1-(1-p^{r-1})(1-q^{s-1}))} \end{align*}
Rating Information

Difficulty Rating: 1484.0

Difficulty Comparisons: 1

Banger Rating: 1484.0

Banger Comparisons: 1

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Problem source
A biased coin, with a probability $p$ of coming up heads and a probability $q=1-p$ of coming up tails, is tossed repeatedly. Let $A$ be the event that the first run of $r$ successive heads occurs before the first run of $s$ successive tails. If $H$ is the even that on the first toss the coin comes up heads and $T$ is the event that it comes up tails, show that 
\begin{alignat*}{1}
\mathrm{P}(A|H) & =p^{\alpha}+(1-p^{\alpha})\mathrm{P}(A|T),\\
\mathrm{P}(A|T) & =(1-q^{\beta})\mathrm{P}(A|H),
\end{alignat*}
where $\alpha$ and $\beta$ are to be determined. Use these two equations to find $\mathrm{P}(A|H),$ $\mathrm{P}(A|T),$ and hence $\mathrm{P}(A).$
Solution source
\begin{align*}
&& \P(A|H) &= \P(\text{achieve }r\text{ heads immediately}) + \P(\text{don't and then achieve it from having flipped a tail}) \\
&&&= p^{r-1} + (1-p^{r-1}) \cdot \P(A|T) \\
&& \P(A|T) &= (1-q^{s-1})\P(A|H) \\
\\
&&\P(A|H) &= p^{r-1}+(1-p^{r-1})(1-q^{s-1})\P(A|H) \\
\Rightarrow && \P(A|H) &= \frac{p^{r-1}}{1-(1-p^{r-1})(1-q^{s-1})} \\
&& \P(A|T) &=  \frac{(1-q^{s-1})p^{r-1}}{1-(1-p^{r-1})(1-q^{s-1})} \\
&& \P(A) &= \frac{(2-q^{s-1})p^{r-1}}{2(1-(1-p^{r-1})(1-q^{s-1}))} 
\end{align*}