1993 Paper 2 Q16

Year: 1993
Paper: 2
Question Number: 16

Course: UFM Statistics
Section: Poisson Distribution

Difficulty: 1600.0 Banger: 1500.0

Problem

At the terminus of a bus route, passengers arrive at an average rate of 4 per minute according to a Poisson process. Each minute, on the minute, one bus arrives with probability \(\frac{1}{4},\) independently of the arrival of passengers or previous buses. Just after eight o'clock there is no-one at the bus stop.
  1. What is the probability that the first bus arrives at \(n\) minutes past 8?
  2. If the first bus arrives at 8:05, what is the probability that there are \(m\) people waiting for it?
  3. Each bus can take 25 people and, since it is the terminus, the bus arrive empty. Explain carefully how you would calculate, to two significant figures, the probability that when the first bus arrives it is unable to pick up all the passengers. Your method should need the use of a calculator and standard tables only. There is no need to carry out the calculation.

No solution available for this problem.

Rating Information

Difficulty Rating: 1600.0

Difficulty Comparisons: 0

Banger Rating: 1500.0

Banger Comparisons: 0

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Problem source
At the terminus of a bus route, passengers arrive at an average rate
of 4 per minute according to a Poisson process. Each minute, on the
minute, one bus arrives with probability $\frac{1}{4},$ independently
of the arrival of passengers or previous buses. Just after eight o'clock
there is no-one at the bus stop. 
\begin{questionparts}
\item What is the probability that the first bus arrives at $n$ minutes
past 8?
\item If the first bus arrives at 8:05, what is the probability that there
are $m$ people waiting for it?
\item Each bus can take 25 people and, since it is the terminus, the bus
arrive empty. Explain carefully how you would calculate, to two significant
figures, the probability that when the first bus arrives it is unable
to pick up all the passengers. Your method should need the use of
a calculator and standard tables only. There is no need to carry out
the calculation. 
\end{questionparts}