1993 Paper 1 Q14

Year: 1993
Paper: 1
Question Number: 14

Course: LFM Stats And Pure
Section: Continuous Probability Distributions and Random Variables

Difficulty: 1500.0 Banger: 1505.6

Problem

When he sets out on a drive Mr Toad selects a speed \(V\) kilometres per minute where \(V\) is a random variable with probability density \[ \alpha v^{-2}\mathrm{e}^{-\alpha v^{-1}} \] and \(\alpha\) is a strictly positive constant. He then drives at constant speed, regardless of other drivers, road conditions and the Highway Code. The traffic lights at the Wild Wood cross-roads change from red to green when Mr Toad is exactly 1 kilometre away in his journey towards them. If the traffic light is green for \(g\) minutes, then red for \(r\) minutes, then green for \(g\) minutes, and so on, show that the probability that he passes them after \(n(g+r)\) minutes but before \(n(g+r)+g\) minutes, where \(n\) is a positive integer, is \[ \mathrm{e}^{-\alpha n(g+r)}-\mathrm{e}^{-\alpha\left(n(g+r)\right)+g}. \] Find the probability \(\mathrm{P}(\alpha)\) that he passes the traffic lights when they are green. Show that \(\mathrm{P}(\alpha)\rightarrow1\) as \(\alpha\rightarrow\infty\) and, by noting that \((\mathrm{e}^{x}-1)/x\rightarrow1\) as \(x\rightarrow0\), or otherwise, show that \[ \mathrm{P}(\alpha)\rightarrow\frac{g}{r+g}\quad\mbox{ as }\alpha\rightarrow0. \] {[}NB: the traffic light show only green and red - not amber.{]}

No solution available for this problem.

Rating Information

Difficulty Rating: 1500.0

Difficulty Comparisons: 0

Banger Rating: 1505.6

Banger Comparisons: 2

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Problem source
When he sets out on a drive Mr Toad selects a speed $V$ kilometres
per minute where $V$ is a random variable with probability density
\[
\alpha v^{-2}\mathrm{e}^{-\alpha v^{-1}}
\]
 and $\alpha$ is a strictly
positive constant. He then drives at constant speed, regardless of
other drivers, road conditions and the Highway Code. The traffic lights
at the Wild Wood cross-roads change from red to green when Mr Toad
is exactly 1 kilometre away in his journey towards them. If the traffic
light is green for $g$ minutes, then red for $r$ minutes, then green
for $g$ minutes, and so on, show that the probability that he passes
them after $n(g+r)$ minutes but before $n(g+r)+g$ minutes, where
$n$ is a positive integer, is 
\[
\mathrm{e}^{-\alpha n(g+r)}-\mathrm{e}^{-\alpha\left(n(g+r)\right)+g}.
\]
Find the probability $\mathrm{P}(\alpha)$ that he passes the traffic
lights when they are green. 

Show that $\mathrm{P}(\alpha)\rightarrow1$ as $\alpha\rightarrow\infty$
and, by noting that $(\mathrm{e}^{x}-1)/x\rightarrow1$ as $x\rightarrow0$,
or otherwise, show that 
\[
\mathrm{P}(\alpha)\rightarrow\frac{g}{r+g}\quad\mbox{ as }\alpha\rightarrow0.
\]
{[}NB: the traffic light show only green and red - not amber.{]}