1990 Paper 2 Q15

Year: 1990
Paper: 2
Question Number: 15

Course: UFM Statistics
Section: Cumulative distribution functions

Difficulty: 1600.0 Banger: 1500.0

Problem

A target consists of a disc of unit radius and centre \(O\). A certain marksman never misses the target, and the probability of any given shot hitting the target within a distance \(t\) from \(O\) it \(t^{2}\), where \(0\leqslant t\leqslant1\). The marksman fires \(n\) shots independently. The random variable \(Y\) is the radius of the smallest circle, with centre \(O\), which encloses all the shots. Show that the probability density function of \(Y\) is \(2ny^{2n-1}\) and find the expected area of the circle. The shot which is furthest from \(O\) is rejected. Show that the expected area of the smallest circle, with centre \(O\), which encloses the remaining \((n-1)\) shots is \[ \left(\frac{n-1}{n+1}\right)\pi. \]

Solution

Another way to describe \(Y\) is the maximum distance of any shot from \(O\). Let \(X_i\), \(1 \leq i \leq n\) be the \(n\) shots then, \begin{align*} F_Y(y) &= \mathbb{P}(Y \leq y) \\ &= \mathbb{P}(X_i \leq y \text{ for all } i) \\ &= \prod_{i=1}^n \mathbb{P}(X_i \leq y) \tag{each shot independent}\\ &= \prod_{i=1}^n y^2\\ &= y^{2n} \end{align*} Therefore \(f_Y(y) = \frac{\d}{\d y} (y^{2n}) = 2n y^{2n-1}\). \begin{align*} \mathbb{E}(\pi Y^2) &= \int_0^1\pi y^2 \f_Y(y) \d y \\ &=\pi \int_0^1 2n y^{2n+1} \d y \\ &=\left ( \frac{n}{n+1} \right )\pi \end{align*}. Let \(Z\) be the distance of the second furthest shot, then: \begin{align*} && F_Z(z) &= \mathbb{P}(Z \leq z) \\ &&&= \mathbb{P}(X_i \leq z \text{ for at least } n - 1\text{ different } i) \\ &&&= n\mathbb{P}(X_i \leq z \text{ for all but 1}) + \mathbb{P}(X_i \leq z \text{ for all } i) \\ &&&= n \left ( \prod_{i=1}^{n-1} \mathbb{P}(X_i \leq z) \right) \mathbb{P}(X_n > z) + z^{2n} \\ &&&= nz^{2n-2}(1-z^2) + z^{2n} \\ &&&= nz^{2n-2} -(n-1)z^{2n} \\ \Rightarrow && f_Z(z) &= n(2n-2)z^{2n-3}-2n(n-1)z^{2n-1} \\ \Rightarrow && \mathbb{E}(\pi Z^2) &= \int_0^1 \pi z^2 \left (n(2n-2)z^{2n-3}-2n(n-1)z^{2n-1} \right) \d z \\ &&&= \pi \left ( \frac{n(2n-2)}{2n} - \frac{2n(n-1)}{2n+2}\right) \\ &&&= \left ( \frac{n-1}{n+1} \right) \pi \end{align*}
Rating Information

Difficulty Rating: 1600.0

Difficulty Comparisons: 0

Banger Rating: 1500.0

Banger Comparisons: 0

Show LaTeX source
Problem source
A target consists of a disc of unit radius and centre $O$. A certain marksman never misses the target, and the probability of any given shot hitting the target within a distance $t$ from $O$ it $t^{2}$, where $0\leqslant t\leqslant1$. The marksman fires $n$ shots independently. The random variable $Y$ is the radius of the smallest circle, with centre $O$, which encloses all the shots. Show that the probability density function of $Y$ is $2ny^{2n-1}$ and find the expected area of the circle. 
The shot which is furthest from $O$ is rejected. Show that the expected area of the smallest circle, with centre $O$, which encloses the remaining $(n-1)$ shots is 
\[
\left(\frac{n-1}{n+1}\right)\pi.
\]
Solution source
Another way to describe $Y$ is the maximum distance of any shot from $O$. Let $X_i$, $1 \leq i \leq n$ be the $n$ shots then,

\begin{align*}
F_Y(y) &= \mathbb{P}(Y \leq y) \\
&=  \mathbb{P}(X_i \leq y \text{ for all } i) \\
&=  \prod_{i=1}^n \mathbb{P}(X_i \leq y) \tag{each shot independent}\\
&=  \prod_{i=1}^n y^2\\
&= y^{2n} 
\end{align*}

Therefore $f_Y(y) = \frac{\d}{\d y} (y^{2n}) = 2n y^{2n-1}$.

\begin{align*}
\mathbb{E}(\pi Y^2) &= \int_0^1\pi y^2 \f_Y(y) \d y \\
&=\pi \int_0^1 2n y^{2n+1} \d y \\
&=\left ( \frac{n}{n+1} \right )\pi
\end{align*}.

Let $Z$ be the distance of the second furthest shot, then:

\begin{align*}
&& F_Z(z) &= \mathbb{P}(Z \leq z) \\
&&&= \mathbb{P}(X_i \leq z \text{ for at least } n - 1\text{ different } i) \\
&&&= n\mathbb{P}(X_i \leq z \text{ for all but 1}) + \mathbb{P}(X_i \leq z \text{ for all } i) \\
&&&= n \left (  \prod_{i=1}^{n-1} \mathbb{P}(X_i \leq z) \right) \mathbb{P}(X_n > z) + z^{2n} \\
&&&= nz^{2n-2}(1-z^2) + z^{2n} \\
&&&= nz^{2n-2} -(n-1)z^{2n} \\
\Rightarrow && f_Z(z) &= n(2n-2)z^{2n-3}-2n(n-1)z^{2n-1} \\
\Rightarrow && \mathbb{E}(\pi Z^2) &= \int_0^1 \pi z^2 \left (n(2n-2)z^{2n-3}-2n(n-1)z^{2n-1} \right) \d z \\
&&&= \pi \left ( \frac{n(2n-2)}{2n} - \frac{2n(n-1)}{2n+2}\right) \\
&&&= \left ( \frac{n-1}{n+1} \right) \pi
\end{align*}