2017 Paper 1 Q13

Year: 2017
Paper: 1
Question Number: 13

Course: LFM Stats And Pure
Section: Tree Diagrams

Difficulty: 1500.0 Banger: 1484.0

Problem

I have a sliced loaf which initially contains \(n\) slices of bread. Each time I finish setting a STEP question, I make myself a snack: either toast, using one slice of bread; or a sandwich, using two slices of bread. I make toast with probability \(p\) and I make a sandwich with probability \(q\), where \(p+q=1\), unless there is only one slice left in which case I must, of course, make toast. Let \(s_r\) (\(1 \le r \le n\)) be the probability that the \(r\)th slice of bread is the second of two slices used to make a sandwich and let \(t_r\) (\(1 \le r \le n\)) be the probability that the \(r\)th slice of bread is used to make toast. What is the value of \(s_1\)? Explain why the following equations hold: \begin{align*} \phantom{\hspace{2cm} (2\le r \le n-1)} t_r &= (s_{r-1}+ t_{r-1})\,p \hspace{2cm} (2\le r \le n-1)\,; \\ \phantom{\hspace{1.53cm} (2\le r \le n) } s_r &= 1- (s_{r-1} + t_{r-1}) \hspace{1.53cm} ( 2\le r \le n )\,. \end{align*} Hence, or otherwise, show that \(s_{r} = q(1-s_{r-1})\) for \(2\le r\le n-1\). Show further that \[ \phantom{\hspace{2.7cm} (1\le r\le n)\,,} s_r = \frac{q+(-q)^r}{1+q} \hspace{2.7cm} (1\le r\le n-1)\,, \, \hspace{0.14cm} \] and find the corresponding expression for \(t_r\). Find also expressions for \(s_n\) and \(t_n\) in terms of \(q\).

Solution

The \(1\)st slice of bread can only be the first slice in a sandwich or a slice of toast. Therefore \(s_1 = 0\) \begin{align*} && t_r &= \underbrace{s_{r-1}}_{r-1\text{th is the end of a sandwich}} \cdot \underbrace{p}_{\text{and we make toast}} + \underbrace{t_{r-1}}_{r-1\text{th is toast}} \cdot \underbrace{p}_{\text{and we make toast}} \\ &&&= (s_{r-1}+t_{r-1})p \\ \\ && s_r &= 1-\mathbb{P}(\text{previous slice is not the first of a sandwich}) \\ &&&= 1-(s_{r-1} + t_{r-1}) \\ \\ \Rightarrow && s_r &= 1 - \frac{t_r}{p} \\ \Rightarrow && t_r &= p - ps_r \\ \Rightarrow && s_r &= 1 - s_{r-1} - (p-ps_{r-1}) \\ &&&= 1 -p -(1-p)s_{r-1} \\ &&&= q(1-s_{r-1}) \end{align*} Therefore since \(s_r + qs_{r-1} = q\) we should look for a solution of the form \(s_r = A(-q)^r + B\). The particular solution will have \((1+q)B = q \Rightarrow B = \frac{q}{1+q}\), the initial condition will have \(s_1 = \frac{q}{1+q} +A(-q) = 0 \Rightarrow q = \frac{1}{1+q}\), so we must have \begin{align*} && s_r &= \frac{q+(-q)^r}{1+q}\\ \Rightarrow && t_r &= p(1-s_r) \\ &&&= p \frac{1+q-q-(-q)^r}{1+q} \\ &&&= \frac{(1-q)(1-(-q)^r)}{1+q} \\ && s_n &= 1-\frac{q+(-q)^{n-1}}{1+q} - \frac{p(1-(-q)^{n-1})}{1+q} \\ &&&= 1-\frac{1+(1-p)(-q)^{n-1}}{1+q}\\ &&&= 1-\frac{1-(-q)^n}{1+q}\\ &&&= \frac{q+(-q)^n}{1+q}\\ && t_n &=1-s_n \\ &&&=\frac{1-(-q)^n}{1+q} \end{align*}
Examiner's report
— 2017 STEP 1, Question 13
Least Popular No candidate achieved full marks; least popular on the paper

This was the least popular question on the paper and the only one where no candidate achieved full marks. Many candidates struggled to explain how the given situation could be described by the recurrence relations given. The elimination of from the recurrence relations also proved problematic for many of the candidates. A few candidates were however able to show the solution for the sequence and deduce the correct expression for the sequence .

The pure questions were again the most popular of the paper with questions 1 and 3 being attempted by almost all candidates. The least popular questions on the paper were questions 10, 11, 12 and 13 and a significant proportion of attempts at these were brief, attracting few or no marks. Candidates generally demonstrated a high level of competence when completing the standard processes and there were many good attempts made when questions required explanations to be given, particularly within the pure questions. A common feature of the stronger responses to questions was the inclusion of diagrams.

Source: Cambridge STEP 2017 Examiner's Report · 2017-full.pdf
Rating Information

Difficulty Rating: 1500.0

Difficulty Comparisons: 0

Banger Rating: 1484.0

Banger Comparisons: 1

Show LaTeX source
Problem source
I have a sliced loaf which initially contains $n$ slices of bread. Each time I finish setting a STEP question, I make myself a snack: either toast, using one slice of bread; or a sandwich, using two slices of bread. I make toast with probability $p$ and I make a sandwich with probability $q$, where $p+q=1$, unless there is only one slice left in which case I must, of course, make toast.
 
Let $s_r$ ($1 \le r \le n$) be the probability that the $r$th slice of bread is the second of two slices used to make a sandwich and let $t_r$ ($1 \le r \le n$) be the probability that the $r$th slice of bread is used to make toast. What is the value of $s_1$? 
Explain why the following equations hold:
\begin{align*}
\phantom{\hspace{2cm} (2\le r \le n-1)}   
t_r &= (s_{r-1}+ t_{r-1})\,p  
\hspace{2cm}
(2\le r \le n-1)\,;
\\
 \phantom{\hspace{1.53cm} (2\le r \le n) }           
s_r &= 1- (s_{r-1} + t_{r-1})
 \hspace{1.53cm}
( 2\le r \le n )\,.           
\end{align*}
Hence, or otherwise, show that $s_{r} = q(1-s_{r-1})$ for
$2\le r\le n-1$.
Show further that 
\[
\phantom{\hspace{2.7cm} (1\le r\le n)\,,}
s_r = \frac{q+(-q)^r}{1+q}
\hspace{2.7cm}
(1\le r\le n-1)\,,
\,
\hspace{0.14cm}
\]
and find the corresponding expression for $t_r$. Find also expressions for $s_n$ and $t_n$ in terms of $q$.
Solution source
The $1$st slice of bread can only be the first slice in a sandwich or a slice of toast. Therefore $s_1 = 0$

\begin{align*}
&& t_r &=  \underbrace{s_{r-1}}_{r-1\text{th is the end of a sandwich}} \cdot \underbrace{p}_{\text{and we make toast}} +  \underbrace{t_{r-1}}_{r-1\text{th is toast}} \cdot \underbrace{p}_{\text{and we make toast}} \\
&&&= (s_{r-1}+t_{r-1})p \\
\\
&& s_r &= 1-\mathbb{P}(\text{previous slice is not the first of a sandwich}) \\
&&&= 1-(s_{r-1} + t_{r-1}) \\
\\
\Rightarrow && s_r &= 1 - \frac{t_r}{p} \\
\Rightarrow && t_r &= p - ps_r \\
\Rightarrow && s_r &= 1 - s_{r-1} - (p-ps_{r-1}) \\
&&&= 1 -p  -(1-p)s_{r-1}  \\
&&&= q(1-s_{r-1})
\end{align*}

Therefore since $s_r + qs_{r-1} = q$ we should look for a solution of the form $s_r = A(-q)^r + B$. The particular solution will have $(1+q)B = q \Rightarrow B = \frac{q}{1+q}$, the initial condition will have

$s_1 = \frac{q}{1+q} +A(-q) = 0 \Rightarrow q = \frac{1}{1+q}$, so we must have

\begin{align*}
&& s_r &= \frac{q+(-q)^r}{1+q}\\
\Rightarrow && t_r &= p(1-s_r) \\
&&&= p \frac{1+q-q-(-q)^r}{1+q} \\
&&&= \frac{(1-q)(1-(-q)^r)}{1+q} \\
&& s_n &= 1-\frac{q+(-q)^{n-1}}{1+q} - \frac{p(1-(-q)^{n-1})}{1+q} \\
&&&= 1-\frac{1+(1-p)(-q)^{n-1}}{1+q}\\
&&&= 1-\frac{1-(-q)^n}{1+q}\\
&&&= \frac{q+(-q)^n}{1+q}\\
&& t_n &=1-s_n \\
&&&=\frac{1-(-q)^n}{1+q}
\end{align*}