2015 Paper 3 Q12

Year: 2015
Paper: 3
Question Number: 12

Course: UFM Statistics
Section: Probability Generating Functions

Difficulty: 1700.0 Banger: 1500.0

Problem

A 6-sided fair die has the numbers 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6 on its faces. The die is thrown \(n\) times, the outcome (the number on the top face) of each throw being independent of the outcome of any other throw. The random variable \(S_n\) is the sum of the outcomes.
  1. The random variable~\(R_n\) is the remainder when \(S_n\) is divided by 6. Write down the probability generating function, \(\G(x)\), of \(R_1\) and show that the probability generating function of \(R_2\) is also \(\G(x)\). Use a generating function to find the probability that \(S_n\) is divisible by 6.
  2. The random variable \(T_n\) is the remainder when \(S_n\) is divided by 5. Write down the probability generating function, \(\G_1(x)\), of \(T_1\) and show that \(\G_2(x)\), the probability generating function of \(T_2\), is given by \[ {\rm G}_2(x) = \tfrac 1 {36} (x^2 +7y) \] where \(y= 1+x+x^2+x^3+x^4\,\). Obtain the probability generating function of \(T_n\) and hence show that the probability that \(S_n\) is divisible by \(5\) is \[ \frac15\left(1- \frac1 {6^n}\right) \] if \(n\) is not divisible by 5. What is the corresponding probability if \(n\) is divisible by 5?

Solution

  1. \(G(x) = \frac{1}{6} (1 + x + x^2 + x^3 + x^4 + x^5)\) The pgf for \(R_2\) is: \begin{align*} \frac1{36}x^2 + \frac{2}{36}x^3 + \frac{3}{36}x^4 + \frac{4}{36}x^5 + \frac{5}{36} +\\ \quad \quad + \frac{6}{36}x^1 + \frac{5}{36}x^2 + \frac4{36}x^3 + \frac3{36}x^4 + \frac{2}{36}x^5 + \frac{1}{36} \\ = \frac{1}{6}(1 + x + x^2 + x^3 + x^4 + x^5) = G(x) \end{align*} Since rolling the dice twice is the same as rolling the dice once, rolling the dice \(n\) times will be the same as rolling it once, ie the pgf for \(R_n\) will be \(G(x)\) and the probability \(S_n\) is divisible by \(6\) is \(\frac16\)
  2. \(G_1(x) = \frac{1}{6} + \frac{1}{3}x^1 + \frac{1}{6}x^2 + \frac16x^3+ \frac16x^4 = \frac16(1 + 2x+x^2+x^3+x^4)\). If \(G_n\) is the probability generating function for \(T_n\) then we can obtain \(G_n\) by multiplying \(G_{n-1}\) by \(G(x)\) and replacing any terms of order higher than \(5\) with their remainder on division by \(5\). (Or equivalently, working over \(\mathbb{R}[x]/(x^5-1)\). If \(y = 1 + x + x^2 + x^3 + x^4\) then: \begin{align*} xy &= x + x^2 + x^3 + x^4 +x^5 \\ &= x + x^2 + x^3 + x^4 + 1 \\ &= y \\ \\ y^2 &= (1 + x+x^2 + x^3+x^4)^2 \\ &= 1 + 2x + 3x^2 + 4x^3+5x^4+4x^5+3x^6 + 2x^7 + x^8 \\ &= (1+4) + (2+3)x+(3+2)x^2 + (4+1)x^3 + 5x^4 \\ &= 5y \end{align*} \begin{align*} \frac{1}{36}(y+x)(y+x) &= \frac1{36}(y^2 + 2xy + x^2) \\ &= \frac1{36}(5y + 2y + x^2 ) \\ &= \frac1{36}(7y + x^2) \end{align*} Similarly, \begin{align*} G_n(x) &= \l\frac{1}{6}(x+y) \r^n \\ &= \frac1{6^n} \l \sum_{i=0}^n \binom{n}{i} y^ix^{n-i} \r \\ &= \frac1{6^n} \l \sum_{i=1}^n \binom{n}{i} y^i + x^n \r \\ &= \frac1{6^n} \l \sum_{i=1}^n \binom{n}{i} 5^{i-1}y + x^n \r \\ &= \frac1{6^n} \l \frac{1}{5}y((5+1)^n-1) + x^n \r \\ &= \frac1{6^n} \l \frac{1}{5}y(6^n-1) + x^n \r \\ \end{align*} Therefore if \(n \not \equiv 0 \pmod{5}\), we can find the probability of \(T_n = 0\) by looking at the constant coefficient, ie plugging in \(x = 0\), which is: \[\frac1{6^n} \l \frac{1}{5}(6^n-1) \r = \frac{1}{5} \l 1- \frac{1}{6^n} \r \] When \(n \equiv 0 \pmod{5}\) we can also find the constant coefficient by plugging in \(x = 0\), which is: \[\frac1{6^n} \l \frac{1}{5}(6^n-1) + 1 \r = \frac{1}{5} \l 1+ \frac{4}{6^n} \r \]
Note: this whole question can be considered a "roots-of-unity" filter in disguise. Our computations in \(\mathbb{R}[x]/(x^5 - 1)\) are the same as computations using \(\omega\), in fact \(\mathbb{R}[x]/(x^5 - 1) \cong \mathbb{R}[\omega]\) where \(\omega\) is a primitive \(5\)th root of unity
Examiner's report
— 2015 STEP 3, Question 12
Mean: ~5.5 / 20 (inferred) ~10% attempted (inferred) Inferred ~5.5/20: 'same sort of scores as Q6 (5.5)'. Pop inferred 10%: 'about 10%'

The two Probability and Statistics questions were equally popular being attempted by about 10% of the candidates with, overall, this one achieving the same sort of scores as question 6. About a fifth of the candidates attempting it got right through the question. Most however did not seem to know what a probability generating function was, and it was often confused with the probability density function. Equally there was confusion between the labels of the random variables and of the PGFs. However most were happy working with the arithmetic congruent to moduli.

A very similar number of candidates to 2014 once again ensured that all questions received a decent number of attempts, with seven questions being very popular rather than five being so in 2014, but the most popular questions were attempted by percentages in the 80s rather than 90s. All but one question was answered perfectly at least once, the one exception receiving a number of very close to perfect solutions. About 70% attempted at least six questions, and in those cases where more than six were attempted, the extra attempts were usually fairly superficial.

Source: Cambridge STEP 2015 Examiner's Report · 2015-full.pdf
Rating Information

Difficulty Rating: 1700.0

Difficulty Comparisons: 0

Banger Rating: 1500.0

Banger Comparisons: 0

Show LaTeX source
Problem source
A 6-sided fair die has the numbers 1,  2, 3, 4, 5, 6  on its faces. The die is  thrown $n$ times, the outcome (the number on the top face) of each throw being independent of the outcome of any other throw. The random variable $S_n$
 is the sum of the outcomes.
\begin{questionparts}
\item The random variable~$R_n$ is the remainder when $S_n$ is divided by 6. Write down the probability generating function, $\G(x)$, of $R_1$ and show that the probability generating function of $R_2$ is also $\G(x)$. Use a generating function to find the probability that $S_n$ is divisible by 6.
\item The random variable $T_n$ is  the remainder when $S_n$ is divided by 5. Write down the probability generating function, $\G_1(x)$, of $T_1$ and show that $\G_2(x)$, the probability generating function of $T_2$, is given by 
\[
{\rm G}_2(x) = \tfrac 1 {36} (x^2 +7y) 
\]
where $y= 1+x+x^2+x^3+x^4\,$.
Obtain the probability generating function of  $T_n$ and hence show that the probability that $S_n$ is divisible by $5$ is 
\[
\frac15\left(1- \frac1 {6^n}\right)
\]
if $n$ is not divisible by 5. What is the corresponding probability if $n$ is divisible by 5?
\end{questionparts}
Solution source
\begin{questionparts}
\item $G(x) = \frac{1}{6} (1 + x + x^2 + x^3 + x^4 + x^5)$

The pgf for $R_2$ is:

\begin{align*}
\frac1{36}x^2 + \frac{2}{36}x^3 + \frac{3}{36}x^4 + \frac{4}{36}x^5 + \frac{5}{36} +\\
\quad \quad + \frac{6}{36}x^1 + \frac{5}{36}x^2 + \frac4{36}x^3 + \frac3{36}x^4 + \frac{2}{36}x^5 + \frac{1}{36} \\
= \frac{1}{6}(1 + x + x^2 + x^3 + x^4 + x^5) = G(x)
\end{align*}

Since rolling the dice twice is the same as rolling the dice once, rolling the dice $n$ times will be the same as rolling it once, ie the pgf for $R_n$ will be $G(x)$ and the probability $S_n$ is divisible by $6$ is $\frac16$

\item $G_1(x) = \frac{1}{6} + \frac{1}{3}x^1 + \frac{1}{6}x^2 + \frac16x^3+ \frac16x^4 = \frac16(1 + 2x+x^2+x^3+x^4)$.

If $G_n$ is the probability generating function for $T_n$ then we can obtain $G_n$ by multiplying $G_{n-1}$ by $G(x)$ and replacing any terms of order higher than $5$ with their remainder on division by $5$. (Or equivalently, working over $\mathbb{R}[x]/(x^5-1)$.  If $y = 1 + x + x^2 + x^3 + x^4$ then:
\begin{align*}
xy &= x + x^2 + x^3 + x^4 +x^5 \\
&=  x + x^2 + x^3 + x^4 + 1 \\
&= y \\
\\
y^2 &= (1 + x+x^2 + x^3+x^4)^2 \\
&= 1 + 2x + 3x^2 + 4x^3+5x^4+4x^5+3x^6 + 2x^7 + x^8 \\
&= (1+4) + (2+3)x+(3+2)x^2 + (4+1)x^3 + 5x^4 \\
&= 5y
\end{align*}

\begin{align*}
\frac{1}{36}(y+x)(y+x) &= \frac1{36}(y^2 + 2xy + x^2) \\
&= \frac1{36}(5y + 2y + x^2 ) \\
&= \frac1{36}(7y + x^2)
\end{align*}

Similarly,

\begin{align*}
G_n(x) &= \l\frac{1}{6}(x+y) \r^n \\
&= \frac1{6^n} \l \sum_{i=0}^n \binom{n}{i} y^ix^{n-i} \r \\
&= \frac1{6^n} \l \sum_{i=1}^n \binom{n}{i} y^i + x^n \r \\
&= \frac1{6^n} \l \sum_{i=1}^n \binom{n}{i} 5^{i-1}y + x^n \r \\
&= \frac1{6^n} \l \frac{1}{5}y((5+1)^n-1) + x^n \r \\
&= \frac1{6^n} \l \frac{1}{5}y(6^n-1) + x^n \r \\
\end{align*}

Therefore if $n \not \equiv 0 \pmod{5}$, we can find the probability of $T_n = 0$ by looking at the constant coefficient, ie plugging in $x = 0$, which is:

\[\frac1{6^n} \l \frac{1}{5}(6^n-1) \r = \frac{1}{5} \l 1- \frac{1}{6^n}   \r \] 

When $n \equiv 0 \pmod{5}$ we can also find the constant coefficient by plugging in $x = 0$, which is:

\[\frac1{6^n} \l \frac{1}{5}(6^n-1) + 1 \r = \frac{1}{5} \l 1+ \frac{4}{6^n}   \r \] 

\end{questionparts}

Note: this whole question can be considered a "roots-of-unity" filter in disguise. Our computations in $\mathbb{R}[x]/(x^5 - 1)$ are the same as computations using $\omega$, in fact $\mathbb{R}[x]/(x^5 - 1) \cong \mathbb{R}[\omega]$ where $\omega$ is a primitive $5$th root of unity