Year: 2013
Paper: 2
Question Number: 12
Course: UFM Statistics
Section: Poisson Distribution
All questions were attempted by a significant number of candidates, with questions 1 to 3 and 7 the most popular. The Pure questions were more popular than both the Mechanics and the Probability and Statistics questions, with only question 8 receiving a particularly low number of attempts within the Pure questions and only question 11 receiving a particularly high number of attempts.
Difficulty Rating: 1600.0
Difficulty Comparisons: 0
Banger Rating: 1484.0
Banger Comparisons: 1
The random variable $U$ has a Poisson distribution with parameter $\lambda$. The random variables $X$ and $Y$ are defined as follows.
\begin{align*}
X&=
\begin{cases}
U & \text{ if $U$ is 1, 3, 5, 7, $\ldots\,$} \\
0 & \text{ otherwise}
\end{cases}
\\
Y&=
\begin{cases}
U & \text{ if $U$ is 2, 4, 6, 8, $\ldots\,$ } \\
0 & \text{ otherwise}
\end{cases}
\end{align*}
\begin{questionparts}
\item Find $\E(X)$ and $\E(Y)$ in terms of $\lambda$, $\alpha$ and $\beta$, where
\[
\alpha = 1+\frac{\lambda^2}{2!}+\frac{\lambda^4}{4!} +\cdots\,
\text{ \ \ and \ \ }
\beta = \frac{\lambda}{1!} + \frac{\lambda^3}{3!} + \frac{\lambda^5}{5!}
+\cdots\,.
\]
\item
Show that
\[
\var(X) = \frac{\lambda\alpha+\lambda^2\beta}{\alpha+\beta}
- \frac{\lambda^2\alpha^2}{(\alpha+\beta)^2}
\]
and obtain the corresponding expression for $\var(Y)$. Are there any non-zero values of $\lambda$ for which $ \var(X) + \var(Y) = \var(X+Y)\,$?
\end{questionparts}
\begin{questionparts}
\item \begin{align*}
\mathbb{E}(X) &= \sum_{r=1}^\infty r \mathbb{P}(X = r) \\
&= \sum_{j=1}^{\infty} (2j-1)\mathbb{P}(U=2j-1) \\
&= \sum_{j=1}^{\infty}(2j-1) \frac{e^{-\lambda} \lambda^{2j-1}}{(2j-1)!} \\
&= \sum_{j=1}^{\infty} e^{-\lambda} \frac{\lambda^{2j-1}}{(2j-2)!} \\
&= \lambda e^{-\lambda} \sum_{j=1}^{\infty} \frac{\lambda^{2j-2}}{(2j-2)!} \\
&= \lambda e^{-\lambda} \alpha
\end{align*}
Since $\mathbb{E}(X+Y) = \lambda, \mathbb{E}(Y) = \lambda(1-e^{-\lambda}\alpha) = \lambda(e^{-\lambda}(\alpha+\beta) - e^{-\lambda}\alpha) = \lambda e^{-\lambda} \beta$. Alternatively, as $\beta + \alpha = e^{\lambda}$, $\mathbb{E}(X) = \frac{\lambda \alpha}{\alpha+\beta}, \mathbb{E}(Y) = \frac{\lambda \beta}{\alpha+\beta}$
\item \begin{align*}
\textrm{Var}(X) &= \mathbb{E}(X^2) - [\mathbb{E}(X)
]^2 \\
&= \sum_{odd} r^2 \mathbb{P}(U = r) - \left [ \mathbb{E}(X)
\right]^2 \\
&= \sum_{odd} (r(r-1)+r)\frac{e^{-\lambda}\lambda^r}{r!} - \frac{\lambda^2 \alpha^2}{(\alpha+\beta)^2} \\
&= \sum_{odd} \frac{e^{-\lambda}\lambda^r}{(r-2)!}+\sum_{odd} \frac{e^{-\lambda}\lambda^r}{(r-1)!} - \frac{\lambda^2 \alpha^2}{(\alpha+\beta)^2} \\
&= e^{-\lambda}\lambda^2 \beta + e^{-\lambda}\lambda \alpha - \frac{\lambda^2 \alpha^2}{(\alpha+\beta)^2} \\
&= \frac{\lambda \alpha + \lambda^2 \beta}{\alpha+\beta}- \frac{\lambda^2 \alpha^2}{(\alpha+\beta)^2}
\end{align*}
Similarly, \begin{align*}
\textrm{Var}(Y) &= \mathbb{E}(Y^2) - [\mathbb{E}(Y)
]^2 \\
&= \sum_{even} r^2 \mathbb{P}(U = r) - \left [ \mathbb{E}(Y)
\right]^2 \\
&= \sum_{even} (r(r-1)+r)\frac{e^{-\lambda}\lambda^r}{r!} - \frac{\lambda^2 \beta^2}{(\alpha+\beta)^2} \\
&= e^{-\lambda}\lambda^2\alpha + e^{-\lambda}\lambda \beta - \frac{\lambda^2 \beta^2}{(\alpha+\beta)^2} \\
&= \frac{\lambda \beta + \lambda^2 \alpha}{\alpha+\beta}- \frac{\lambda^2 \beta^2}{(\alpha+\beta)^2}
\end{align*}
Since $\textrm{Var}(X+Y) = \textrm{Var}(U) = \lambda$, we are interested in solving:
\begin{align*}
\lambda &= \frac{\lambda \alpha + \lambda^2 \beta}{\alpha+\beta}- \frac{\lambda^2 \alpha^2}{(\alpha+\beta)^2} + \frac{\lambda \beta + \lambda^2 \alpha}{\alpha+\beta}- \frac{\lambda^2 \beta^2}{(\alpha+\beta)^2} \\
&= \frac{\lambda(\alpha+\beta) + \lambda^2(\alpha+\beta)}{\alpha+\beta} - \frac{\lambda^2(\alpha^2+\beta^2)}{(\alpha+\beta)^2} \\
&= \lambda + \lambda^2 \frac{(\alpha+\beta)^2 - (\alpha^2+\beta^2)}{(\alpha+\beta)^2} \\
&= \lambda + \lambda^2 \frac{2\alpha\beta}{(\alpha+\beta)^2}
\end{align*}
which is clearly not possible if $\lambda \neq 0$
\end{questionparts}
This was the least popular of all the questions. Many of those who did attempt the question succeeded in calculating the expressions for the expectations, but the simplification of the calculation for the variance proved more tricky. A good number of the candidates managed to reach the final part of the question, but few were able to provide a valid argument for the final result.