Principle of Inclusion/Exclusion

Showing 1-3 of 3 problems
2016 Paper 2 Q12
D: 1600.0 B: 1503.2

Starting with the result \(\P(A\cup B) = \P(A)+P(B) - \P(A\cap B)\), prove that \[ \P(A\cup B\cup C) = \P(A)+\P(B)+\P(C) - \P(A\cap B) - \P(B\cap C) - \P(C \cap A) + \P(A\cap B\cap C) \,. \] Write down, without proof, the corresponding result for four events \(A\), \(B\), \(C\) and \(D\). A pack of \(n\) cards, numbered \(1, 2, \ldots, n\), is shuffled and laid out in a row. The result of the shuffle is that each card is equally likely to be in any position in the row. Let \(E_i\) be the event that the card bearing the number \(i\) is in the \(i\)th position in the row. Write down the following probabilities:

  1. \(\P(E_i)\);
  2. \(\P(E_i\cap E_j)\), where \(i\ne j\);
  3. \(\P(E_i\cap E_j\cap E_k)\), where \(i\ne j\), \(j\ne k\) and \(k\ne i\).
Hence show that the probability that at least one card is in the same position as the number it bears is \[ 1 - \frac 1 {2!} + \frac 1{3!} - \cdots + (-1)^{n+1} \frac 1 {n!}\,. \] Find the probability that exactly one card is in the same position as the number it bears

Show Solution
\begin{align*} && \mathbb{P}(A \cup B \cup C) &= \mathbb{P}(A \cup B) + \mathbb{P}(C) - \mathbb{P}((A \cup B) \cap C) \tag{applying with \(A\cup B\) and \(C\)} \\ &&&= \mathbb{P}(A \cup B) + \mathbb{P}(C) - \mathbb{P}((A \cap C) \cup (B \cap C)) \\ &&&= \mathbb{P}(A)+\mathbb{P}(B) - \mathbb{P}(A\cap B) + \mathbb{P}(C) - \mathbb{P}((A \cap C) \cup (B \cap C)) \tag{applying with \(A\) and \(B\)}\\ &&&= \mathbb{P}(A)+\mathbb{P}(B) - \mathbb{P}(A\cap B) + \mathbb{P}(C) - \left ( \mathbb{P}(A \cap C) +\mathbb{P}(B \cap C) - \mathbb{P}( (A \cap C) \cap (B \cap C) )\right) \\ &&&= \mathbb{P}(A)+\mathbb{P}(B) +\mathbb{P}(C)- \mathbb{P}(A\cap B)- \mathbb{P}(A \cap C) -\mathbb{P}(B \cap C)+\mathbb{P}( A \cap B \cap C) \end{align*} \[ \mathbb{P}(A_1 \cup A_2 \cup A_3 \cup A_4) = \sum_i \mathbb{P}(A_i) - \sum_{i \neq j} \mathbb{P}(A_i \cap A_j) + \sum_{i \neq j \neq j} \mathbb{P}(A_i \cap A_j \cap A_k) - \mathbb{P}(A_1 \cap A_2 \cap A_3 \cap A_4) \]
  1. \(\mathbb{P}(E_i) = \frac{1}{n}\)
  2. \(\mathbb{P}(E_i \cap E_j) = \frac{1}{n} \cdot \frac{1}{n-1} = \frac{1}{n(n-1)}\)
  3. \(\mathbb{P})(E_i \cap E_j \cap E_k) = \frac{1}{n(n-1)(n-2)}\)
First notice that the probability that \(k\) (or more) cards are in the correct place is \(\frac{(n-k)!}{n!}\) (place the other \(n-k\) cards in any order. We are interested in: \begin{align*} \mathbb{P} \left ( \bigcup_{i=1}^n E_i \right) &= \sum_{i} \mathbb{P}(E_i) - \sum_{i \neq j} \mathbb{P}(E_i \cap E_j) + \sum_{i \neq j \neq k} \mathbb{P}(E_i \cap E_j \cap E_k) - \cdots \\ &= \sum_i \frac1n - \sum_{i\neq j} \frac{1}{n(n-1)} + \sum_{i \neq j \neq k} \frac{1}{n(n-1)(n-2)} - \cdots + (-1)^{k+1} \sum_{i_1 \neq i_2 \neq \cdots \neq i_k} \frac{(n-k)!}{n!} + \cdots\\ &= 1 - \binom{n}{2} \frac{1}{n(n-1)} + \binom{n}{3} \frac{1}{n(n-1)(n-2)} - \cdots + (-1)^{k+1} \binom{n}{k} \frac{(n-k)}{n!} + \cdots \\ &= 1 - \frac12 + \frac1{3!} - \cdots + (-1)^{k+1} \frac{n!}{k!(n-k)!} \frac{(n-k)!}{n!} + \cdots \\ &= 1 - \frac1{2!} + \frac1{3!} - \cdots + (-1)^{k+1} \frac{1}{k!} + \cdots + (-1)^{n+1} \frac{1}{n!} \end{align*} The probability exactly one card is in the right place is the probability none of the other \(n-1\) are in the right place, which is: \(\frac1n \left (1 - \left (1 - \frac1{2!} + \frac1{3!} - \cdots + (-1)^{k+1} \frac{1}{k!} + \cdots + (-1)^{n} \frac{1}{(n-1)!} \right) \right)\) but there are also \(n\) cards we can choose to be the card in the right place, hence \(\frac{1}{2!} - \frac{1}{3!} + \cdots +(-1)^n \frac{1}{(n-1)!}\)
2005 Paper 1 Q12
D: 1500.0 B: 1529.8

  1. The probability that a hobbit smokes a pipe is 0.7 and the probability that a hobbit wears a hat is 0.4. The probability that a hobbit smokes a pipe but does not wear a hat is \(p\). Determine the range of values of \(p\) consistent with this information.
  2. The probability that a wizard wears a hat is 0.7; the probability that a wizard wears a cloak is 0.8; and the probability that a wizard wears a ring is 0.4. The probability that a wizard does not wear a hat, does not wear a cloak and does not wear a ring is 0.05. The probability that a wizard wears a hat, a cloak and also a ring is 0.1. Determine the probability that a wizard wears exactly two of a hat, a cloak, and a ring. The probability that a wizard wears a hat but not a ring, given that he wears a cloak, is \(q\). Determine the range of values of \(q\) consistent with this information.

Show Solution
  1. \(\,\)
    TikZ diagram
    The overlap can be at most 0.4, which would mean \(p =0.7-0.4 = 0.3\) It must be at least 0.1, which would mean \(p =0.7-0.1 = 0.6\) so \(0.3 \leq p \leq 0.6\)
  2. TikZ diagram
    Notice that: \begin{align*} && 1 &= 0.05 + 0.7 -(hc+hr+0.1) + \\ &&&\quad\quad 0.8 - (hc+cr + 0.1) + \\ &&&\quad \quad \quad 0.4 - (hr+cr+0.1) +\\ &&&\quad \quad \quad \quad hc+hr+cr+0.1 \\ && &= 0.05 +0.7+0.8+0.4 - (hc+hr+cr)-2\cdot 0.1 \\ \Rightarrow && hc+hr+cr &=0.05 +0.7 + 0.8 + 0.4 - 0.2-1 \\ \Rightarrow && \mathbb{P}(\text{exactly 2}) &= 0.75 \end{align*} Notice \(q = \frac{hc}{0.8}\) Notice that we must have: \(hc, hr cr \geq 0\) as well as \(hc+hr+cr = 0.75\) \begin{align*} && \mathbb{P}(\text{only hat}) &= 0.7 -(hc+hr+0.1) \geq 0 \\ \Rightarrow && hc+hr & \leq 0.6 \\ && \mathbb{P}(\text{only cloak}) &= 0.8 - (hc+cr + 0.1)\geq 0 \\ \Rightarrow &&hc+cr & \leq 0.7 \\ && \mathbb{P}(\text{only ring}) &= 0.4 - (hr+cr+0.1) \geq 0 \\ \Rightarrow && hc+hr & \leq 0.3 \\ \end{align*} To find the minimum for \(hc\) we want to maximise \(hr+cr = 0.3\), so \(hc = 0.75 - 0.3 = 0.45\). To find the maximum for \(hc\) we want to minimise \(hr\) and \(cr\) \(cr \leq 0.7 - hc\) and \(hr \leq 0.6 - hc\) so \(0.75 \leq hc + (0.6 - hc) + (0.7 - hc) = 1.3-hc\) so \(hc \leq 1.3 - 0.75 = 0.55\) Therefore the range for \(q\) is \(\frac{.45}{.8}\) to \(\frac{.55}{.8}\) or \(\frac9{16} \leq q \leq \frac{11}{16}\)
2004 Paper 2 Q14
D: 1600.0 B: 1484.0

Explain why, if \(\mathrm{A, B}\) and \(\mathrm{C}\) are three events, \[ \mathrm{P(A \cup B \cup C) = P(A) + P(B) + P(C) - P(A \cap B) - P(B \cap C) - P(C \cap A) +P(A \cap B \cap C)}, \] where \(\mathrm{P(X)}\) denotes the probability of event \(\mathrm{X}\). A cook makes three plum puddings for Christmas. He stirs \(r\) silver sixpences thoroughly into the pudding mixture before dividing it into three equal portions. Find an expression for the probability that each pudding contains at least one sixpence. Show that the cook must stir 6 or more sixpences into the mixture if there is to be less than \({1 \over 3}\) chance that at least one of the puddings contains no sixpence. Given that the cook stirs 6 sixpences into the mixture and that each pudding contains at least one sixpence, find the probability that there are two sixpences in each pudding.

Show Solution
TikZ diagram
When we add everything in \(A\),\(B\), \(C\) we overcount the overlaps. When we remove the overlaps we remove the centre section too many times, so we have to add it back on in the end. Let \(X_i\) be the probability that the \(i\)th pudding contains a sixpence. \begin{align*} && \mathbb{P}(X_1^c \cup X_2^c \cup X_3^c) &=\mathbb{P}(X_1^c \cap X_2^c \cap X_3^c) + \mathbb{P}(X_1^c)+\mathbb{P}(X_2^c)-\mathbb{P}(X_3^c)+\\ &&&\quad\quad-\mathbb{P}(X_1^c \cap X_2^c )-\mathbb{P}( X_2^c \cap X_3^c)-\mathbb{P}(X_1^c \cap X_3^c) \\ &&&= 0 + (\tfrac23)^r+ (\tfrac23)^r+ (\tfrac23)^r + \\ &&&\quad\quad - (\tfrac13)^r- (\tfrac13)^r- (\tfrac13)^r \\ &&&= \frac{3\cdot2^r-3}{3^{r}} \\ \Rightarrow && \mathbb{P}(\text{all contain a sixpence}) &= 1 - \frac{3\cdot2^r-3}{3^{r}} \\ &&&= \frac{3^r-3\cdot2^r+3}{3^r} \end{align*} When \(r = 5\) we have \(\frac{3 \cdot 32-3}{3^5} = \frac{31}{81} > \frac13\) When \(r = 6\) we have \(\frac{3 \cdot 64-3}{3^6} = \frac{7}{27} < \frac13\) Therefore, the chef must stir in at least \(6\). \begin{align*} && \mathbb{P}(\text{two in each}|\text{at least 1 in each}) &= \frac{ \mathbb{P}(\text{two in each} \cap \text{at least 1 in each}) }{ \mathbb{P}(\text{at least 1 in each}) } \\ &&&= \frac{ \mathbb{P}(\text{two in each}) }{ \mathbb{P}(\text{at least 1 in each}) } \\ &&&= \frac{90/3^6}{20/27} \\ &&&= \frac{1/3}{2} = \frac16 \end{align*}