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2003 Paper 3 Q13
D: 1700.0 B: 1500.0

In a rabbit warren, underground chambers \(A, B, C\) and \(D\) are at the vertices of a square, and burrows join \(A\) to \(B\), \ \(B\) to \(C\), \ \(C\) to \(D\) and \(D\) to \(A\). Each of the chambers also has a tunnel to the surface. A rabbit finding itself in any chamber runs along one of the two burrows to a neighbouring chamber, or leaves the burrow through the tunnel to the surface. Each of these three possibilities is equally likely. Let \(p_A\,\), \(p_B\,\), \(p_C\) and \(p_D\) be the probabilities of a rabbit leaving the burrow through the tunnel from chamber \(A\), given that it is currently in chamber \(A, B, C\) or \(D\), respectively.

  1. Explain why \(p_A = \frac13 + \frac13p_B + \frac13 p_D\).
  2. Determine \(p_A\,\).
  3. Find the probability that a rabbit which starts in chamber \(A\) does not visit chamber~\(C\), given that it eventually leaves the burrow through the tunnel in chamber \(A\).

2003 Paper 3 Q14
D: 1700.0 B: 1599.8

Write down the probability generating function for the score on a standard, fair six-faced die whose faces are labelled \(1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6\). Hence show that the probability generating function for the sum of the scores on two standard, fair six-faced dice, rolled independently, can be written as \[ \frac1{36} t^2 \l 1 + t \r^2 \l 1 - t + t^2 \r^2 \l 1 + t + t^2 \r^2 \;. \] Write down, in factorised form, the probability generating functions for the scores on two fair six-faced dice whose faces are labelled with the numbers \(1, 2, 2, 3, 3, 4\) and \(1, 3, 4, 5, 6, 8,\) and hence show that when these dice are rolled independently, the probability of any given sum of the scores is the same as for the two standard fair six-faced dice. Standard, fair four-faced dice are tetrahedra whose faces are labelled \(1, 2, 3, 4,\) the score being taken from the face which is not visible after throwing, and each score being equally likely. Find all the ways in which two fair four-faced dice can have their faces labelled with positive integers if the probability of any given sum of the scores is to be the same as for the two standard fair four-faced dice.