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1989 Paper 3 Q9
D: 1700.0 B: 1516.0

Obtain the sum to infinity of each of the following series.

  1. \(1{\displaystyle +\frac{2}{2}+\frac{3}{2^{2}}+\frac{4}{2^{3}}+\cdots+\frac{r}{2^{r-1}}+\cdots;}\)
  2. \(1{\displaystyle +\frac{1}{2}\times\frac{1}{2}+\frac{1}{3}\times\frac{1}{2^{2}}+\cdots+\frac{1}{r}\times\frac{1}{2^{r-1}}+\cdots;}\)
  3. \({\displaystyle \dfrac{1\times3}{2!}\times\frac{1}{3}+\frac{1\times3\times5}{3!}\frac{1}{3^{2}}+\cdots+\frac{1\times3\times\cdots\times(2k-1)}{k!}\times\frac{1}{3^{k-1}}+\cdots.}\)
[Questions of convergence need not be considered.]


Solution:

  1. \begin{align*} && \frac1{1-x} &= \sum_{r=0}^{\infty} x^r \\ \underbrace{\Rightarrow}_{\frac{\d}{\d x}} && \frac{1}{(1-x)^2} &= \sum_{r=0}^\infty rx^{r-1} \\ \underbrace{\Rightarrow}_{x = \frac12} && 4 &= \sum_{r=0}^{\infty} \frac{r}{2^{r-1}} \end{align*}
  2. \begin{align*} && \frac1{1-x} &= \sum_{r=1}^{\infty} x^{r-1} \\ \underbrace{\Rightarrow}_{\int} && -\ln (1-x) &= \sum_{r=1}^{\infty} \frac1{r} x^r \\ \underbrace{\Rightarrow}_{x = \frac12} && \ln 2 &= \sum_{r=1}^{\infty} \frac1{r } \times \frac{1}{ 2^{r}} \\ \Rightarrow && 2 \ln 2 &= \sum_{r=1}^{\infty} \frac1{r } \times \frac{1}{ 2^{r-1}} \\ \end{align*}
  3. \begin{align*} && (1-x)^{-1/2} &= 1 + \frac{(-\tfrac12)}{1!} (-x) +\frac{(-\tfrac12)(-\tfrac32)}{2!}(-x)^2 + \cdots \\ &&&= \sum_{r=0}^{\infty} \frac{1 \cdot 3 \cdot 5 \cdots \cdot (2r-1)}{2^rr!} x^r \\ \underbrace{\Rightarrow}_{x = \frac23} && \sqrt{3} &= \sum_{r=0}^{\infty} \frac{1 \cdot 3 \cdot 5 \cdots \cdot (2r-1)}{r!} \frac1{3^r} \\ &&&= 1 + \frac{1}{1!} \frac23 + \frac13 \sum_{r=2}^{\infty} \frac{1 \cdot 3 \cdot 5 \cdots \cdot (2r-1)}{r!} \frac1{3^{r-1}} \\ \Rightarrow && 3\sqrt{3}-5 &= \sum_{r=2}^{\infty} \frac{1 \cdot 3 \cdot 5 \cdots \cdot (2r-1)}{r!} \frac1{3^{r-1}} \\ \end{align*}

1989 Paper 3 Q10
D: 1700.0 B: 1516.0

  1. Prove that \[ \sum_{r=1}^{n}r(r+1)(r+2)(r+3)(r+4)=\tfrac{1}{6}n(n+1)(n+2)(n+3)(n+4)(n+5) \] and deduce that \[ \sum_{r=1}^{n}r^{5}<\tfrac{1}{6}n(n+1)(n+2)(n+3)(n+4)(n+5). \]
  2. Prove that, if \(n>1,\) \[ \sum_{r=0}^{n-1}r^{5}>\tfrac{1}{6}(n-5)(n-4)(n-3)(n-2)(n-1)n. \]
  3. Let \(\mathrm{f}\) be an increasing function. If the limits \[ \lim_{n\rightarrow\infty}\sum_{r=0}^{n-1}\frac{a}{n}\mathrm{f}\left(\frac{ra}{n}\right)\qquad\mbox{ and }\qquad\lim_{n\rightarrow\infty}\sum_{r=1}^{n}\frac{a}{n}\mathrm{f}\left(\frac{ra}{n}\right) \] both exist and are equal, the definite integral \({\displaystyle \int_{0}^{a}\mathrm{f}(x)\,\mathrm{d}x}\) is defined to be their common value. Using this definition, prove that \[ \int_{0}^{a}x^{5}\,\mathrm{d}x=\tfrac{1}{6}a^6. \]


Solution:

  1. Claim: \[ \sum_{r=1}^{n}r(r+1)(r+2)(r+3)(r+4)=\tfrac{1}{6}n(n+1)(n+2)(n+3)(n+4)(n+5) \] Proof: (By Induction) Base case: (n=1) \begin{align*} LHS &= 1 \cdot 2 \cdot 3 \cdot 4 \cdot 5 = 5! \\ RHS &= \frac16 1 \cdot 2 \cdot 3 \cdot 4 \cdot 5 \cdot 6 = 5! \end{align*} Therefore the base case is true. Inductive step: Suppose our statement is true for some \(n=k\), then consider \(n = k+1\) \begin{align*} \sum_{r=1}^{k+1} r(r+1)(r+2)(r+3)(r+4) &= \sum_{r=1}^{k} r(r+1)(r+2)(r+3)(r+4) + (k+1)(k+2)(k+3)(k+4)(k+5) \\ &\underbrace{=}_{\text{assumption}} \frac16 k(k+1)(k+2)(k+3)(k+4)(k+5) + (k+1)(k+2)(k+3)(k+4)(k+5) \\ &= (k+1)(k+2)(k+3)(k+4)(k+5) \l \frac{k}{6} +1\r \\ &= \frac16 (k+1)(k+2)(k+3)(k+4)(k+5)(k+6) \end{align*} Therefore our statement is true for \(n = k+1\). Therefore since our statement is true for \(n=1\) and if it is true for \(n=k\) then it is true for \(n = k+1\) by the principle of mathematical induction it is true for all \(n \geq 1\) Since \begin{align*} \sum_{r=1}^{n}r^5 &< \sum_{r=1}^{n}r(r+1)(r+2)(r+3)(r+4) \\ &= \frac16 n(n+1)(n+2)(n+3)(n+4)(n+5) \end{align*}
  2. \begin{align*}\sum_{r=0}^{n-1} r^5 &> \sum_{r=0}^{n-1} (r-4)(r-3)(r-2)(r-1)r \\ &= \sum_{r=0}^{n-5} r(r+1)(r+2)(r+3)(r+4) \\ &= \frac16 (n-5)(n-4)(n-3)(n-2)(n-1)n \end{align*}
  3. Let \(f(x) = x^5\) \begin{align*} S_{1,n} &= \sum_{r=0}^{n-1}\frac{a}{n}f\left(\frac{ra}{n}\right) \\ &= \sum_{r=0}^{n-1}\frac{a}{n}\left(\frac{ra}{n}\right)^5 \\ &=\frac{a^6}{n^6} \sum_{r=0}^{n-1}r^5\\ \end{align*} Therefore \(\frac{a^6}6 \frac{(n-5)(n-4)(n-3)(n-2)(n-1)n}{n^6} < S_{1,n} < \frac{a^6}6 \frac{(n-1)n(n+1)(n+2)(n+3)(n+4)}{n^6}\) and so \(\lim_{n\to\infty} S_{1,n} = \frac{a^6}{6}\). Similarly, \begin{align*} S_{2,n} &= \sum_{r=1}^{n}\frac{a}{n}f\left(\frac{ra}{n}\right) \\ &= \sum_{r=1}^{n}\frac{a}{n}\left(\frac{ra}{n}\right)^5 \\ &= \frac{a^6}{n^6} \sum_{r=1}^{n} r^5 \end{align*} Therefore \(\frac{a^6}6 \frac{(n-4)(n-3)(n-2)(n-1)n(n+1)}{n^6} < S_{2,n} < \frac{a^6}6 \frac{n(n+1)(n+2)(n+3)(n+4)(n+5)}{n^6}\) and so \(\lim_{n\to\infty} S_{2,n} = \frac{a^6}{6}\). Since both limits exist are are equal, we have \[ \int_{0}^{a}x^{5}\,\mathrm{d}x=\tfrac{1}{6}a^6. \]

1989 Paper 3 Q11
D: 1700.0 B: 1499.3

A smooth uniform sphere, with centre \(A\), radius \(2a\) and mass \(3m,\) is suspended from a fixed point \(O\) by means of a light inextensible string, of length \(3a,\) attached to its surface at \(C\). A second smooth unifom sphere, with centre \(B,\) radius \(3a\) and mass \(25m,\) is held with its surface touching \(O\) and with \(OB\) horizontal. The second sphere is released from rest, falls and strikes the first sphere. The coefficient of restitution between the spheres is \(3/4.\) Find the speed \(U\) of \(A\) immediately after the impact in terms of the speed \(V\) of \(B\) immediately before impact. The same system is now set up with a light rigid rod replacing the string and rigidly attached to the sphere so that \(OCA\) is a straight line. The rod can turn freely about \(O\). The sphere with centre \(B\) is dropped as before. Show that the speed of \(A\) immediately after impact is \(125U/127.\)

1989 Paper 3 Q12
D: 1700.0 B: 1500.0

A smooth horizontal plane rotates with constant angular velocity \(\Omega\) about a fixed vertical axis through a fixed point \(O\) of the plane. The point \(A\) is fixed in the plane and \(OA=a.\) A particle \(P\) lies on the plane and is joined to \(A\) by a light rod of length \(b(>a)\) freely pivoted at \(A\). Initially \(OAP\) is a straight line and \(P\) is moving with speed \((a+2\sqrt{ab})\Omega\) perpendicular to \(OP\) in the same sense as \(\Omega.\) At time \(t,\) \(AP\) makes an angle \(\phi\) with \(OA\) produced. Obtain an expression for the component of the acceleration of \(P\) perpendicular to \(AP\) in terms of \(\dfrac{\mathrm{d}^{2}\phi}{\mathrm{d}t^{2}},\phi,a,b\) and \(\Omega.\) Hence find \(\dfrac{\mathrm{d}\phi}{\mathrm{d}t}\), in terms of \(\phi,a,b\) and \(\Omega,\) and show that \(P\) never crosses \(OA.\)


Solution: Set up coordinate axes so that at time \(t\) \(OA\) is the \(x\)-axis, and all rotations are counter-clockwise. Then if \(OA = \mathbf{a}\), \(AP = \mathbf{x}\) and \(OP = \mathbf{p}\) we have: \begin{align*} \mathbf{a} &= \binom{a}{0} \\ \dot{\mathbf{a}} &= \binom{0}{-a \Omega} \\ \ddot{\mathbf{a}} &= \binom{-a \Omega^2}{0} \\ \\ \mathbf{x} &= \binom{b \cos \phi }{b \sin \phi } \\ \dot{\mathbf{x}} &= b \dot{\phi} \binom{-\sin \phi}{\cos \phi} \\ \ddot{\mathbf{x}} &= \binom{-b \ddot{\phi} \sin \phi-b \dot{\phi}^2 \cos \phi }{b \ddot{\phi} \cos \phi-b \dot{\phi}^2 \sin \phi} \\ \\ \ddot{\mathbf{p}} &= \binom{-a \Omega^2 +-b \ddot{\phi} \sin \phi-b \dot{\phi}^2 \cos \phi }{b \ddot{\phi} \cos \phi-b \dot{\phi}^2 \sin \phi} \end{align*} We can take a dot product with \(\mathbf{n} = \binom{-\sin \phi}{\cos \phi}\) to obtain the component perpendicular to \(AP\), which is: \begin{align*} && \binom{-\sin \phi}{\cos \phi} \cdot \ddot{x} &= a \Omega^2 \sin \phi + b \ddot{\phi} \end{align*} Noticing that this component must be \(0\) (since the only force acting on \(P\) is the rod), this must be equal to zero. \begin{align*} && 0 &= a \Omega^2 \sin \phi + b \ddot{\phi} \\ \Rightarrow && 0 &= a \Omega^2 \dot{\phi} \sin \phi + b\dot{\phi} \ddot{\phi} \\ \Rightarrow && C &= -a \Omega^2 \cos \phi + \tfrac12 b \dot{\phi}^2 \end{align*} Noticing that the initial conditions are \(\phi = 0\) and \(\dot{\phi} = 2\sqrt{\frac{a}{b}} \Omega\), so \begin{align*} && C &= -a \Omega^2+ \tfrac12 b \left ( 2\sqrt{\frac{a}{b}} \Omega \right)^2 \\ &&&= -a \Omega^2 + 2a \Omega^2 \\ &&&= a \Omega^2\\ \Rightarrow && \dot{\phi} &=\sqrt{\frac{2}{b} \left ( a \Omega^2 + a \Omega^2 \cos \phi \right)} \\ &&&= \Omega \sqrt{\frac{2a}{b}} \sqrt{1+ \cos \phi} \\ &&& = \Omega \sqrt{\frac{2a}{b}}\sqrt{2} \cos \tfrac{\phi}{2} \\ \Rightarrow && \int \sec \tfrac{\phi}{2} \d \phi &= 2 \Omega \sqrt{\frac{a}{b}}t \\ \Rightarrow && \tfrac12 \ln | \sec \tfrac{\phi}{2}+\tan \tfrac{\phi}{2} | &= 2 \Omega \sqrt{\frac{a}{b}}t + C \\ t = 0, \phi = 0: && C = 0 \\ \Rightarrow && \sec \tfrac{\phi}{2}+\tan \tfrac{\phi}{2} &= e^{4 \Omega \sqrt{\frac{a}{b}}t} \end{align*} Since when \(t > 0\) this is positive and larger than \(1\) we cannot have \(\phi = 0\) and since it remains below infinite \(\phi\) cannot reach \(\pi\). Therefore it cannot cross \(OA\)

1989 Paper 3 Q13
D: 1700.0 B: 1500.0

The points \(A,B,C,D\) and \(E\) lie on a thin smooth horizontal table and are equally spaced on a circle with centre \(O\) and radius \(a\). At each of these points there is a small smooth hole in the table. Five elastic strings are threaded through the holes, one end of each beging attached at \(O\) under the table and the other end of each being attached to a particle \(P\) of mass \(m\) on top of the table. Each of the string has natural length \(a\) and modulus of elasticity \(\lambda.\) If \(P\) is displaced from \(O\) to any point \(F\) on the table and released from rest, show that \(P\) moves with simple harmonic motion of period \(T\), where \[ T=2\pi\sqrt{\frac{am}{5\lambda}}. \] The string \(PAO\) is replaced by one of natural length \(a\) and modulus \(k\lambda.\) \(P\) is displaced along \(OA\) from its equilibrium position and released. Show that \(P\) still moves in a straight line with simple harmonic motion, and, given that the period is \(T/2,\) find \(k\).


Solution:

TikZ diagram
The extension of \(OAP\) is \(|AP|\) and so the tension \(T_a = \frac{\lambda}{a} |AP|\). To simplify calculations, let \(A = a, B = a \omega, C = a \omega^2, \cdots\) where \(\omega = e^{2 \pi i/5}\) and let \(P = z\). then we can calculate the force as: \begin{align*} &&\sum_{p}T_p \mathbf{n}_{z \to p} &= \sum_{p} \frac{\lambda}{a} |z-p| \frac{p-z}{|p-z|} \\ &&&= \frac{\lambda}{a} \sum_{p} ( p - z) \\ &&&= -\frac{5\lambda}{a}z \end{align*} Therefore the force has magnitude \(\frac{5 \lambda}{a} |OP|\) directly towards the origin. Therefore if we set up our coordinate axis such that \(OP\) is the \(x\) axis, the particle will remain on the \(x\) axis and will move under the equation: \[ m \ddot{x} + \frac{5 \lambda}{a} x = 0 \] But then we can say that \(P\) moves under SHM with period \(\displaystyle 2 \pi \sqrt{\frac{am}{5 \lambda}}\) as required. Now suppose that \(PAO\) has been replaced with the string of modulus \(k \lambda\) but that \(P\) is along \(OA\). \begin{align*} F &= \frac{\lambda}{a}\left ( (a \omega - z) + (a \omega^2 - z)+ (a \omega^3 -z)+ (a \omega^4 - z) + k(a -z) \right) \\ &= \frac{\lambda}{a}(-a - 4z+ka -kz) \\ &= \frac{\lambda}{a}((k-1)a-(k+4)z) \end{align*} Notice that if \(z\) is real, this expression is also real, so all forces are acting along \(OA\). Therefore the particle will remain on the line \(OA\). We can also notice that the particle will move under the differential equation \[ m \ddot{x} + \frac{(k+4) \lambda}{a}x = \lambda(k-1) \] Therefore it will move with SHM about a point slightly displaced from the origin. The period will be: \(\displaystyle 2 \pi \sqrt{\frac{ma}{(k+4)\lambda}}\) which is equal to \(T/2\) if \((k+4) = 20 \Rightarrow k = 16\)

1989 Paper 3 Q14
D: 1700.0 B: 1472.2

  1. A solid circular disc has radius \(a\) and mass \(m.\) The density is proportional to the distance from the centre \(O\). Show that the moment of inertia about an axis through \(C\) perpendicular to the plane of the disc is \(\frac{3}{5}ma^{2}.\)
  2. A light inelastic string has one end fixed at \(A\). It passes under and supports a smooth pulley \(B\) of mass \(m.\) It then passes over a rough pulley \(C\) which is a disc of the type described in (i), free to turn about its axis which is fixed and horizontal. The string carries a particle \(D\) of mass \(M\) at its other end. The sections of the string which are not in contact with the pulleys are vertical. The system is released from rest and moves under gravity for \(t\) seconds. At the end of this interval the pulley \(B\) is suddenly stopped. Given that \(m<2M\), find the resulting impulse on \(D\) in terms of \(m,M,g\) and \(t\). {[}You may assume that the string is long enough for there to be no collisions between the elements of the system, and that the pulley \(C\) is rough enough to prevent slipping throughout.{]}


Solution:

  1. TikZ diagram
    \begin{align*} m &= \int_0^a \underbrace{(\rho r)}_{\text{mass per area}} \underbrace{\pi r^2}_{\text{area}} \d r \\ &= \rho \pi \frac{a^3}{3} \\ \\ I &= \sum m r^2 \\ &= \sum (\rho r) \pi r^2 \cdot r^2 \\ &\to \int_0^a \rho \pi r^4 \\ &= \frac15 \rho \pi a^5 \\ &= \frac35 m a^2 \end{align*}
  2. TikZ diagram
    \begin{align*} \text{N2}(\downarrow, D): && Mg -T_C &= Mf \\ \overset{\curvearrowright}{C} && (T_C - T_B)a &= I \frac{f}{a} \\ &&&= \frac35 m a f \\ \text{N2}(\uparrow, B): && 2T_B-mg &= \frac12 m f \\ \\ \Rightarrow && Mg-T_B &= \left (M + \frac35 m \right)f \\ \Rightarrow && Mg - \frac12 mg &= \left (M + \frac35 m + \frac14 m \right)f \\ \Rightarrow && f &= \frac{(M-\frac12 m)g}{M + \frac{17}{20} m} \\ &&&= \frac{(2M-m)g}{2M +\frac{17}{10}m} \end{align*} Therefore the speed after a time \(t\) is \(\displaystyle \frac{(2M-m)g}{2M +\frac{17}{10}m} t\) and the impulse will be the change in momentum, ie \(\displaystyle \frac{(2M-m)g}{2M +\frac{17}{10}m} Mt\)

1989 Paper 3 Q15
D: 1700.0 B: 1503.8

The continuous random variable \(X\) is uniformly distributed over the interval \([-c,c].\) Write down expressions for the probabilities that:

  1. \(n\) independently selected values of \(X\) are all greater than \(k\),
  2. \(n\) independently selected values of \(X\) are all less than \(k\),
where \(k\) lies in \([-c,c]\). A sample of \(2n+1\) values of \(X\) is selected at random and \(Z\) is the median of the sample. Show that \(Z\) is distributed over \([-c,c]\) with probability density function \[ \frac{(2n+1)!}{(n!)^{2}(2c)^{2n+1}}(c^{2}-z^{2})^{n}. \] Deduce the value of \({\displaystyle \int_{-c}^{c}(c^{2}-z^{2})^{n}\,\mathrm{d}z.}\) Evaluate \(\mathrm{E}(Z)\) and \(\mathrm{var}(Z).\)


Solution:

  1. \begin{align*} \mathbb{P}(n\text{ independent values of }X > k) &= \prod_{i=1}^n \mathbb{P}(X > k) \\ &= \left ( \frac{c-k}{2c}\right)^n \end{align*}
  2. \begin{align*} \mathbb{P}(n\text{ independent values of }X < k) &= \prod_{i=1}^n \mathbb{P}(X < k) \\ &= \left ( \frac{k+c}{2c}\right)^n \end{align*}
\begin{align*} &&\mathbb{P}(\text{median} < z+\delta \text{ and median} > z - \delta) &= \mathbb{P}(n\text{ values } < z - \delta \text{ and } n \text{ values} > z + \delta) \\ &&&= \binom{2n+1}{n,n,1} \left ( \frac{c-(z+\delta)}{2c}\right)^n\left ( \frac{(z-\delta)+c}{2c}\right)^n \frac{2 \delta}{2 c} \\ &&&= \frac{(2n+1)!}{n! n!} \frac{((c-(z+\delta))(c+(z-\delta)))^n 2\delta}{2^n c^n} \\ &&&= \frac{(2n+1)!}{(n!)^2 (2c)^{2n+1}}((c-(z+\delta))(c+(z-\delta)))^n 2\delta \\ \Rightarrow && \lim_{\delta \to 0} \frac{\mathbb{P}(\text{median} < z+\delta \text{ and median} > z - \delta)}{2 \delta} &= \frac{(2n+1)!}{(n!)^2 (2c)^{2n+1}}((c-z)(c+z))^n \\ &&&= \frac{(2n+1)!}{(n!)^2 (2c)^{2n+1}}(c^2-z^2) \\ \end{align*} \begin{align*} && 1 &= \int_{-c}^c \frac{(2n+1)!}{(n!)^2 (2c)^{2n+1}}(c^2-z^2)^n \d z \\ \Rightarrow && \frac{(n!)^2 (2c)^{2n+1}}{(2n+1)!} &= \int_{-c}^c (c^2-z^2)^n \d z \end{align*} \begin{align*} \mathbb{E}(Z) &= \int_{-c}^c z \frac{(2n+1)!}{(n!)^2 (2c)^{2n+1}}(c^2-z^2)^n \d z \\ &=\frac{(2n+1)!}{(n!)^2 (2c)^{2n+1}} \int_{-c}^c z (c^2-z^2)^n \d z \\ &= 0 \end{align*} \begin{align*} \mathrm{Var}(Z) &= \mathbb{E}(Z^2) - \mathbb{E}(Z)^2 \\ &= \mathbb{E}(Z^2) \\ &= \int_{-c}^c z^2 \frac{(2n+1)!}{(n!)^2 (2c)^{2n+1}}(c^2-z^2)^n \d z \\ &=\frac{(2n+1)!}{(n!)^2 (2c)^{2n+1}} \int_{-c}^c z^2 (c^2-z^2)^n \d z \\ &=\frac{(2n+1)!}{(n!)^2 (2c)^{2n+1}} \left ( \left [ -\frac{1}{2(n+1)}z(c^2-z^2)^{n+1} \right]_{-c}^c + \frac{1}{2(n+1)}\int_{-c}^c (c^2-z^2)^{n+1} \d z \right) \\ &= \frac{(2n+1)!}{(n!)^2 (2c)^{2n+1}} \frac{1}{2(n+1)} \frac{((n+1)!)^2 (2c)^{2n+3}}{(2n+3)!} \\ &= \frac{(n+1)^2(2c)^2}{(n+1)(2n+2)(2n+3)} \\ &= \frac{2c^2}{2n+3} \end{align*}

1989 Paper 3 Q16
D: 1700.0 B: 1484.0

It is believed that the population of Ruritania can be described as follows:

  1. \(25\%\) are fair-haired and the rest are dark-haired;
  2. \(20\%\) are green-eyed and the rest hazel-eyed;
  3. the population can also be divided into narrow-headed and broad-headed;
  4. no narrow-headed person has green eyes and fair hair;
  5. those who are green-eyed are as likely to be narrow-headed as broad-headed;
  6. those who are green-eyed and broad-headed are as likely to be fair-headed as dark-haired;
  7. half of the population is broad-headed and dark-haired;
  8. a hazel-eyed person is as likely to be fair-haired and broad-headed as dark-haired and narrow-headed.
Find the proportion believed to be narrow-headed. I am acquainted with only six Ruritanians, all of whom are broad-headed. Comment on this observation as evidence for or against the given model. A random sample of 200 Ruritanians is taken and is found to contain 50 narrow-heads. On the basis of the given model, calculate (to a reasonable approximation) the probability of getting 50 or fewer narrow-heads. Comment on the result.


Solution:

TikZ diagram
Conditions tell us: \begin{align*} && a+b+d+e &= 0.25 \\ && b+c+e+f &= 0.2 \\ && e &= 0 \\ && b+c &= e + f \\ && b &= c \\ && c+h &= 0.5 \\ && a &= g \\ \end{align*}
TikZ diagram
So \(4b = 0.2 \Rightarrow b = 0.05\)
TikZ diagram
And \begin{align*} && 0.25 &= a + d + 0.05 \\ && 1 &= 2a + d + 0.65 \\ \Rightarrow && a &= 0.15 \\ && d &= 0.05 \end{align*}
TikZ diagram
So the proportion who are narrow-headed is \(30\%\). It's obviously relatively unlikely for your six Ruritanian friends to all be broad-headed if it's a random sample, but friendship groups are are likely to be biased so it's not too surprising. Assuming there is a sufficiently large number of Ruritanians, we might model the number of narrow-headed Ruritanians from a sample of \(200\) as \(X \sim B(200, 0.3)\). Computing \(\mathbb{P}(X \leq 50)\) by hand is tricky, so let's use a binomial approximation to obtain: \(X \approx N(60, 42)\) and \begin{align*} \mathbb{P}(X \leq 50) &\approx \mathbb{P} \left (Z \leq \frac{50 - 60+0.5}{\sqrt{42}} \right) \\ &\approx \mathbb{P} \left (Z \leq -\frac{9.5}{6.5} \right) \\ &\approx \mathbb{P} \left (Z \leq -\frac{3}{2} \right) \\ &\approx 5\% \end{align*} (actually this approximation gives \(7.1\%\) and the binomial value gives \(7.0\%\)). This also seems somewhat surprising