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2014 Paper 3 Q11
D: 1700.0 B: 1484.0

A particle \(P\) of mass \(m\) is connected by two light inextensible strings to two fixed points \(A\) and \(B\), with \(A\) vertically above \(B\). The string \(AP\) has length \(x\). The particle is rotating about the vertical through \(A\) and \(B\) with angular velocity \(\omega\), and both strings are taut. Angles \(PAB\) and \(PBA\) are \(\alpha\) and \(\beta\), respectively. Find the tensions \(T_A\) and \(T_B\) in the strings \(AP\) and \(BP\) (respectively), and hence show that \(\omega^2 x\cos\alpha \ge g\). Consider now the case that \(\omega^2 x\cos\alpha = g\). Given that \(AB=h\) and \(BP=d\), where \(h>d\), show that \(h\cos\alpha \ge \sqrt{h^2-d^2}\). Show further that \[ mg < T_A \le \frac{mgh}{\sqrt{h^2-d^2}\,}\,. \] Describe the geometry of the strings when \(T_A\) attains its upper bound.


Solution:

TikZ diagram
\begin{align*} \text{N2}(\uparrow): && T_A \cos \alpha - T_B \cos\alpha - mg &= 0 \\ \Rightarrow && T_A \cos \alpha - T_B \cos\beta &= mg \\ \text{N2}(\leftarrow, \text{radially}): && T_A \sin \alpha + T_B \sin \beta &= m x \sin \alpha \omega^2 \\ \Rightarrow && T_A(\cos \alpha \sin \beta+\sin \alpha \cos \beta) &= mg \sin \beta + mx \sin \alpha \omega^2 \cos \beta \\ \Rightarrow && T_A &=\frac{mg\sin \beta + m x \sin \alpha \omega^2 \cos \beta }{\sin(\alpha + \beta)} \\ \Rightarrow && T_B(\sin \beta \cos \alpha- \cos \beta \sin \alpha)&= mx \sin \alpha \omega^2 \cos \alpha -mg \sin \alpha \\ \Rightarrow && T_B &= \frac{m x \sin \alpha \omega^2 \cos \alpha - mg \sin \alpha}{\sin(\beta - \alpha)} \\ &&&= \frac{m \sin \alpha(\omega^2 \cos\alpha - g)}{\sin (\beta - \alpha)} \end{align*} Since \(T_B \geq 0 \Rightarrow \omega^2 \cos\alpha - g \geq 0\) as required.
TikZ diagram
\(\sqrt{h^2-d^2}\) is the length of the final side on the dashed right angle triangle with hypotenuse \(AB\). \(h \cos \alpha\) will be clearly longer as the angle \(\alpha\) will be smaller and so \(\cos \alpha\) will be larger. When \(\omega^2 x \cos \alpha = g\) we must have \(T_B = 0\). \(T_A\cos \alpha = mg \Rightarrow T_A > mg\) since \(\alpha \neq 0\). \(T_A = \frac{mg}{\cos \alpha} \leq \frac{mgh}{\sqrt{h^2-d^2}}\) \(T_A\) will attain it's upper bound when \(\angle APB\) is a right angle.

2014 Paper 3 Q12
D: 1700.0 B: 1500.0

The random variable \(X\) has probability density function \(f(x)\) (which you may assume is differentiable) and cumulative distribution function \(F(x)\) where \(-\infty < x < \infty \). The random variable \(Y\) is defined by \(Y= \e^X\). You may assume throughout this question that \(X\) and \(Y\) have unique modes.

  1. Find the median value \(y_m\) of \(Y\) in terms of the median value \(x_m\) of \(X\).
  2. Show that the probability density function of \(Y\) is \(f(\ln y)/y\), and deduce that the mode \(\lambda\) of \(Y\) satisfies \(\f'(\ln \lambda) = \f(\ln \lambda)\).
  3. Suppose now that \(X \sim {\rm N} (\mu,\sigma^2)\), so that \[ f(x) = \frac{1}{\sigma \sqrt{2\pi}\,} \e^{-(x-\mu)^2/(2\sigma^2)} \,. \] Explain why \[\frac{1}{\sigma \sqrt{2\pi}\,} \int_{-\infty}^{\infty}\e^{-(x-\mu-\sigma^2)^2/(2\sigma^2)} \d x = 1 \] and hence show that \( \E(Y) = \e ^{\mu+\frac12\sigma^2}\).
  4. Show that, when \(X \sim {\rm N} (\mu,\sigma^2)\), \[ \lambda < y_m < \E(Y)\,. \]


Solution:

  1. \begin{align*} && \frac12 &= \mathbb{P}(X \leq x_m) \\ \Leftrightarrow && \frac12 &= \mathbb{P}(e^X \leq e^{x_m} = y_m) \end{align*} Therefore the median is \(y_m = e^{x_m}\)
  2. \begin{align*} && \mathbb{P}(Y \leq y) &= \mathbb{P}(e^X \leq y) \\ &&&= \mathbb{P}(X \leq \ln y) \\ &&&= F(\ln y) \\ \Rightarrow && f_Y(y) &= f(\ln y)/y \\ \\ && f'_Y(y) &= \frac{f'(\ln y) - f(\ln y)}{y^2} \end{align*} Therefore since the mode satisfies \(f'_Y = 0\) we must have \(f'(\ln \lambda ) = f(\ln \lambda)\)
  3. This is the integral of the pdf of \(N(\mu + \sigma^2, \sigma^2)\) and therefore is clearly \(1\). \begin{align*} && \E[Y] &= \int_{-\infty}^{\infty} e^x \cdot \frac{1}{\sqrt{2\pi \sigma^2}} e^{-(x-\mu)^2/(2\sigma^2)} \d x \\ &&&= \frac{1}{\sqrt{2\pi \sigma^2}} \int_{-\infty}^{\infty} \exp (x - (x-\mu)^2/(2\sigma^2)) \d x\\ &&&= \frac{1}{\sqrt{2\pi \sigma^2}} \int_{-\infty}^{\infty} \exp ((2x \sigma^2- (x-\mu)^2)/(2\sigma^2)) \d x\\ &&&= \frac{1}{\sqrt{2\pi \sigma^2}} \int_{-\infty}^{\infty} \exp (-(x-\mu-\sigma^2)^2+2\mu \sigma^2-\sigma^4)/(2\sigma^2)) \d x\\ &&&= \frac{1}{\sqrt{2\pi \sigma^2}} \int_{-\infty}^{\infty} \exp (-(x-\mu+\sigma^2)^2)/(2\sigma^2)+\mu +\frac12\sigma^2) \d x\\ &&&= \e^{\mu +\frac12\sigma^2}\frac{1}{\sqrt{2\pi \sigma^2}} \int_{-\infty}^{\infty} \exp (-(x-\mu-\sigma^2)^2)/(2\sigma^2)) \d x\\ &&&= \e^{\mu +\frac12\sigma^2} \end{align*}
  4. Notice that \(y_m = e^\mu < e^{\mu + \tfrac12 \sigma^2} = \E[Y]\), so it suffices to prove that \(\lambda < e^{\mu}\) Notice that \(f'(x) - f(x) = f(x)[-(x-\mu)/\sigma^2 - 1]\) and therefore \(\ln y - \mu = -\sigma^2\) so \(\lambda = e^{\mu - \sigma^2}\) which is clearly less than \(e^{\mu}\) as required.

2014 Paper 3 Q13
D: 1700.0 B: 1500.0

I play a game which has repeated rounds. Before the first round, my score is \(0\). Each round can have three outcomes:

  1. my score is unchanged and the game ends;
  2. my score is unchanged and I continue to the next round;
  3. my score is increased by one and I continue to the next round.
The probabilities of these outcomes are \(a\), \(b\) and \(c\), respectively (the same in each round), where \(a+b+c=1\) and \(abc\ne0\). The random variable \(N\) represents my score at the end of a randomly chosen game. Let \(G(t)\) be the probability generating function of \(N\).
  1. Suppose in the first round, the game ends. Show that the probability generating function conditional on this happening is 1.
  2. Suppose in the first round, the game continues to the next round with no change in score. Show that the probability generating function conditional on this happening is \(G(t)\).
  3. By comparing the coefficients of \(t^n\), show that $ G(t) = a + bG(t) + ctG(t)\,. $ Deduce that, for \(n\ge0\), \[ P(N=n) = \frac{ac^n}{(1-b)^{n+1}}\,. \]
  4. Show further that, for \(n\ge0\), \[ P(N=n) = \frac{\mu^n}{(1+\mu)^{n+1}}\,, \] where \(\mu=\E(N)\).


Solution:

  1. If the game ends in the first round then the score is exactly \(0\) and the pgf is \(1\cdot x^0 = 1\)
  2. If the game moves onto the next round with no change in the first round then it's as if nothing happened, therefore the pgf is the original pgf \(G(t)\)
  3. If the game moves into the next round with the score increased by one, then the pgf is \(tG(t)\) since all the scores are increased by \(1\). Therefore \begin{align*} && G(t) &= \E[t^N] \\ &&&= \E[\E[t^N | \text{first round}]] \\ &&&= a + bG(t) + ctG(t) \\ \Rightarrow && G(t)(1-b-ct) = a \\ \Rightarrow && G(t) &= \frac{a}{(1-b)-ct} \\ &&&= \frac{a}{(1-b)} \frac{1}{1- \left(\frac{c}{1-b}\right)t} \\ &&&= \sum_{n=0}^\infty \frac{a}{1-b} \frac{c^n}{(1-b)^n} t^n\\ &&&= \sum_{n=0}^{\infty} \frac{ac^n}{(1-b)^{n+1}}t^n \end{align*} Therefore by comparing coefficients, \(\mathbb{P}(N=n) = \frac{ac^n}{(1-b)^{n+1}}\)
  4. \(\,\) \begin{align*} && \E[N] &= G'(1) \\ &&&= \frac{ac}{((1-b)-c)^2} \\ &&&= \frac{ac}{a^2} = \frac{c}{a} \\ \\ && \frac{\mu^n}{(1+\mu)^{n+1}} &= \frac{c^na^{-n}}{(a+c)^{n+1}a^{-n-1}} \\ &&&= \frac{ac^n}{(a+c)^{n+1}}\\ &&&= \frac{ac^n}{(1-b)^{n+1}}\\ &&&= \mathbb{P}(N=n) \end{align*} as required