A two-stage missile is projected from a point \(A\) on the ground with horizontal and vertical velocity components \(u\) and \(v\), respectively. When it reaches the highest point of its trajectory an internal explosion causes it to break up into two fragments. Immediately after this explosion one of these fragments, \(P\), begins to move vertically upwards with speed \(v_e\), but retains the previous horizontal velocity. Show that \(P\) will hit the ground at a distance \(R\) from \(A\) given by $$ \frac{gR}u = v+v_e + \sqrt{v_e^2 +v^2}\, . $$ It is required that the range \(R\) should be greater than a certain distance \(D\) (where \(D> 2uv/g\)). Show that this requirement is satisfied if \[ v_e> \frac{gD}{2u}\left( \frac{gD-2uv}{gD-uv}\right). \] \noindent[{\sl The effect of air resistance is to be neglected.}]
The national lottery of Ruritania is based on the positive integers from \(1\) to \(N\), where \(N\) is very large and fixed. Tickets cost \(\pounds1\) each. For each ticket purchased, the punter (i.e. the purchaser) chooses a number from \(1\) to \(N\). The winning number is chosen at random, and the jackpot is shared equally amongst those punters who chose the winning number. A syndicate decides to buy \(N\) tickets, choosing every number once to be sure of winning a share of the jackpot. The total number of tickets purchased in this draw is \(3.8N\) and the jackpot is \(\pounds W\). Assuming that the non-syndicate punters choose their numbers independently and at random, find the most probable number of winning tickets and show that the expected net loss of the syndicate is approximately \[ N\; - \; %\textstyle{ \frac{5 \big(1- e^{-2.8}\big)}{14} \;W\;. \]
The life times of a large batch of electric light bulbs are independently and identically distributed. The probability that the life time, \(T\) hours, of a given light bulb is greater than \(t\) hours is given by \[ \P(T>t) \; = \; \frac{1}{(1+kt)^\alpha}\;, \] where \(\alpha\) and \(k\) are constants, and \(\alpha >1\). Find the median \(M\) and the mean \(m\) of \(T\) in terms of \(\alpha\) and \(k\). Nine randomly selected bulbs are switched on simultaneously and are left until all have failed. The fifth failure occurs at 1000 hours and the mean life time of all the bulbs is found to be 2400 hours. Show that \(\alpha\approx2\) and find the approximate value of \(k\). Hence estimate the probability that, if a randomly selected bulb is found to last \(M\) hours, it will last a further \(m-M\) hours.
Two coins \(A\) and \(B\) are tossed together. \(A\) has probability \(p\) of showing a head, and \(B\) has probability \(2p\), independent of \(A\), of showing a head, where \(0 < p < \frac12\). The random variable \(X\) takes the value 1 if \(A\) shows a head and it takes the value \(0\) if \(A\) shows a tail. The random variable \(Y\) takes the value 1 if \(B\) shows a head and it takes the value \(0\) if \(B\) shows a tail. The random variable \(T\) is defined by \[ T= \lambda X + {\textstyle\frac12} (1-\lambda)Y. \] Show that \(\E(T)=p\) and find an expression for \(\var(T)\) in terms of \(p\) and \(\lambda\). Show that as \(\lambda\) varies, the minimum of \(\var(T)\) occurs when \[ \lambda =\frac{1-2p}{3-4p}\;. \] The two coins are tossed \(n\) times, where \(n>30\), and \(\overline{T}\) is the mean value of \(T\). Let \(b\) be a fixed positive number. Show that the maximum value of \(\P\big(\vert \overline{T}-p\vert < b\big)\) as \(\lambda\) varies is approximately \(2\Phi(b/s)-1\), where \(\Phi\) is the cumulative distribution function of a standard normal variate and \[ s^2= \frac{p(1-p)(1-2p)}{(3-4p)n}\;. \]
Solution: \begin{align*} && \E[T] &= \E[\lambda X + \tfrac12(1-\lambda)Y] \\ &&&= \lambda \E[X] + \tfrac12(1-\lambda) \E[Y] \\ &&&= \lambda p + \tfrac12 (1-\lambda) 2p \\ &&&= p \\ \\ && \var[T] &= \var[\lambda X + \tfrac12(1-\lambda)Y] \\ &&&= \lambda^2 \var[X] + \tfrac14(1-\lambda)^2 \var[Y] \\ &&&= \lambda^2 p(1-p) + \tfrac14(1-\lambda)^22p(1-2p) \\ &&&= p(\lambda^2 + \tfrac12(1-\lambda)^2) -p^2(\lambda^2+(1-\lambda)^2)\\ &&&= p(\tfrac32\lambda^2 - \lambda + \tfrac12) -p^2(2\lambda^2 -2\lambda + 2) \end{align*} Differentiating \(\var[T]\) with respect to \(\lambda\), and noting it is a quadratic with positive leading coefficient, we get \begin{align*} && \frac{\d \var[T]}{\d \lambda} &= p(2\lambda -(1-\lambda)) - p^2(2 \lambda -2(1-\lambda)) \\ &&&= p(3\lambda - 1)-p^2(4\lambda - 2) \\ \Rightarrow && \lambda(4p-3) &= 2p-1 \\ \Rightarrow && \lambda &= \frac{1-2p}{3-4p} \end{align*} By the central limit theorem \(\overline{T} \sim N(p, \frac{\sigma^2}{n})\) in particular, \(\mathbb{P}(|\overline{T} - p| < b) = \mathbb{P}(\left \lvert |\frac{\overline{T}-p}{\frac{\sigma}{\sqrt{n}}} \right \lvert < \frac{b}{\frac{\sigma}{\sqrt{n}}}) = \mathbb{P}(|Z| < \frac{b\sqrt{n}}{\sigma}) = 2\Phi(b/s) - 1\) where \(s = \frac{\sigma}{\sqrt{n}}\) so \begin{align*} && s^2 &= \frac1n \sigma^2 \\ &&&= \frac1n \left ( \left (\left ( \frac{1-2p}{3-4p} \right)^2 + \tfrac12 \left (1-\frac{1-2p}{3-4p} \right)^2 \right)p - \left ( \left ( \frac{1-2p}{3-4p} \right)^2 + \left (1-\frac{1-2p}{3-4p} \right)^2\right)p^2 \right) \\ &&&= \frac1n \left ( \left (\left ( \frac{1-2p}{3-4p} \right)^2 + \tfrac12 \left (\frac{2-2p}{3-4p} \right)^2 \right)p - \left ( \left ( \frac{1-2p}{3-4p} \right)^2 + \left (\frac{2-2p}{3-4p} \right)^2\right)p^2 \right) \\ &&&= \frac{p}{n(3-4p)^2} \left ( (1 -4p + 4p^2 + 2-4p+2p^2) - (1-4p+4p^2+4-8p+4p^2)p \right) \\ &&&= \frac{p}{n(3-4p)^2} \left (3-13p+18p^2-8p^3 \right) \\ &&&= \frac{p}{n(3-4p)^2} (3-4p)(1-2p)(1-p) \\ &&&= \frac{p(1-p)(1-2p)}{(3-4p)n} \end{align*}