\(\,\)
Harry the Calculating Horse will do any mathematical problem I set him, providing the answer is 1, 2, 3 or 4. When I set him a problem, he places a hoof on a large grid consisting of unit squares and his answer is the number of squares partly covered by his hoof. Harry has circular hoofs, of radius \(1/4\) unit. After many years of collaboration, I suspect that Harry no longer bothers to do the calculations, instead merely placing his hoof on the grid completely at random. I often ask him to divide 4 by 4, but only about \(1/4\) of his answers are right; I often ask him to add 2 and 2, but disappointingly only about \(\pi/16\) of his answers are right. Is this consistent with my suspicions? I decide to investigate further by setting Harry many problems, the answers to which are 1, 2, 3, or 4 with equal frequency. If Harry is placing his hoof at random, find the expected value of his answers. The average of Harry's answers turns out to be 2. Should I get a new horse?
The random variable \(U\) takes the values \(+1\), \(0\) and \(-1\,\), each with probability \(\frac13\,\). The random variable \(V\) takes the values \(+1\) and \(-1\) as follows:
In order to get money from a cash dispenser I have to punch in an identification number. I have forgotten my identification number, but I do know that it is equally likely to be any one of the integers \(1\), \(2\), \ldots , \(n\). I plan to punch in integers in order until I get the right one. I can do this at the rate of \(r\) integers per minute. As soon as I punch in the first wrong number, the police will be alerted. The probability that they will arrive within a time \(t\) minutes is \(1-\e^{-\lambda t}\), where \(\lambda\) is a positive constant. If I follow my plan, show that the probability of the police arriving before I get my money is \[ \sum_{k=1}^n \frac{1-\e^{-\lambda(k-1)/r}}n\;. \] Simplify the sum. On past experience, I know that I will be so flustered that I will just punch in possible integers at random, without noticing which I have already tried. Show that the probability of the police arriving before I get my money is \[ 1-\frac1{n-(n-1)\e^{-\lambda/r}} \;. \]