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Captain Spalding is on a visit to the idyllic island of Gambriced.
The population of the island consists of the two lost tribes of Frodox
and the latest census shows that $11/16$ of the population belong
to the Ascii who tell the truth $3/4$ of the time and $5/16$ to
the Biscii who always lie. The answers of an Ascii to each question
(even if it is the same as one before) are independent.

Show that the probability that an Ascii gives the same answer twice
in succession to the same question is $5/8$. Show that the probability
that an Ascii gives the same answer twice is telling the truth is
$9/10.$

Captain Spalding addresses one of the natives as follows.

\hspace{1.5em} \textsl{Spalding: }My good man, I'm afraid I'm lost. Should I go left or right to reach the nearest town?\nolinebreak

\hspace{1.5em}\textsl{Native: }Left.

\hspace{1.5em}\textsl{Spalding: }I am a little deaf. Should I go left or right to
reach the nearest town?

\hspace{1.5em}\textsl{Native (patiently): }Left.

Show that, on the basis of this conversation, Captain Spalding should
go left to try and reach the nearest town and that there is a probability
$99/190$ that this is the correct direction.

The conversation resumes as follows.

\hspace{1.5em}\textsl{Spalding: }I'm sorry I didn't quite hear that. Should I go
left or right to reach the nearest town?

\hspace{1.5em}\textsl{Native (loudly and clearly): }Left.

Shouls Captain Spalding go left or right and why? Show that if he
follows your advice the probability that this is the correct direction
is $331/628$.

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